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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
7–2 on winners
spread MAE 6.8
9 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Citadel
@
Davidson
|
+19.5 | 145.9 | 90% | 63–79 | ✓ |
Utah State
@
South Florida
|
+1.7 | 156.4 | 52% | 61–74 | ✓ |
Rider
@
Merrimack
|
+11.9 | 133.1 | 87% | 66–68 | ✓ |
Robert Morris
@
Green Bay
|
+1.7 | 140.1 | 65% | 80–78 | ✗ |
Long Beach State
@
UC Santa Barbara
|
+8.5 | 146.6 | 81% | 77–84 | ✓ |
Cal State Bakersfield
@
Cal State Northridge
|
+1.9 | 147.6 | 62% | 66–87 | ✓ |
Cal Poly
@
Cal State Fullerton
|
+3.1 | 162.5 | 67% | 94–91 | ✗ |
UC Riverside
@
UC Irvine
|
+7.6 | 133.2 | 80% | 60–73 | ✓ |
UC Davis
@
Hawai'i
|
+5.8 | 137.7 | 73% | 69–75 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.