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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
18–5 on winners
spread MAE 8.2
23 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Maryland Eastern Shore
@
Virginia
|
+23.2 | 135.3 | 91% | 60–84 | ✓ |
North Carolina Central
@
Kentucky
|
+26.6 | 140.0 | 91% | 67–103 | ✓ |
North Carolina A&T
@
Howard
|
-4.7 | 139.5 | 31% | 69–73 | ✗ |
Coppin State
@
Saint Joseph's
|
+14.5 | 143.1 | 88% | 65–87 | ✓ |
South Dakota State
@
Ball State
|
-5.9 | 132.9 | 25% | 68–64 | ✓ |
Little Rock
@
West Virginia
|
+22.8 | 131.2 | 90% | 58–90 | ✓ |
Columbia
@
Stony Brook
|
-2.4 | 143.0 | 39% | 73–77 | ✗ |
McNeese
@
Rhode Island
|
+2.1 | 140.4 | 55% | 66–64 | ✗ |
Bucknell
@
Rider
|
-2.1 | 134.5 | 36% | 51–38 | ✓ |
Illinois
@
Ohio State
|
+0.3 | 149.1 | 53% | 88–80 | ✗ |
Brown
@
Providence
|
+13.1 | 147.2 | 87% | 79–86 | ✓ |
Morgan State
@
DePaul
|
+14.6 | 144.9 | 88% | 49–92 | ✓ |
Penn State
@
Indiana
|
+12.2 | 147.6 | 86% | 72–113 | ✓ |
South Dakota
@
Wyoming
|
+18.1 | 152.5 | 90% | 79–106 | ✓ |
USC
@
San Diego
|
-9.4 | 156.0 | 17% | 94–81 | ✓ |
Dartmouth
@
Colorado State
|
+17.3 | 151.8 | 89% | 55–76 | ✓ |
Northern Arizona
@
Arizona State
|
+13.6 | 146.2 | 87% | 48–73 | ✓ |
Florida
@
UConn
|
+3.8 | 137.1 | 64% | 73–77 | ✓ |
Long Beach State
@
San José State
|
+6.3 | 135.8 | 72% | 83–89 | ✓ |
Norfolk State
@
Baylor
|
+12.7 | 143.4 | 87% | 67–97 | ✓ |
UAlbany
@
Yale
|
+16.0 | 145.0 | 88% | 82–93 | ✓ |
Merrimack
@
Princeton
|
+2.6 | 132.2 | 60% | 59–56 | ✗ |
Miami (OH)
@
UNC Asheville
|
-1.2 | 147.2 | 42% | 90–87 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.