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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
10–3 on winners
spread MAE 7.8
13 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Wofford
@
Gardner-Webb
|
-8.0 | 146.4 | 22% | 83–57 | ✓ |
Niagara
@
VCU
|
+23.7 | 139.6 | 91% | 58–84 | ✓ |
East Texas A&M
@
SE Louisiana
|
+1.4 | 138.4 | 58% | 70–69 | ✗ |
Wyoming
@
South Dakota State
|
-8.9 | 143.0 | 21% | 87–72 | ✓ |
North Alabama
@
Alabama A&M
|
+3.2 | 134.7 | 62% | 60–68 | ✓ |
McNeese
@
Houston Christian
|
-10.9 | 138.5 | 16% | 78–68 | ✓ |
Incarnate Word
@
TCU
|
+17.0 | 145.4 | 89% | 65–69 | ✓ |
Howard
@
Drexel
|
+2.6 | 135.4 | 63% | 74–66 | ✗ |
Lipscomb
@
Duke
|
+21.7 | 147.2 | 90% | 73–97 | ✓ |
South Carolina Upstate
@
South Carolina State
|
-10.5 | 139.5 | 16% | 78–72 | ✓ |
Sacred Heart
@
UMass Lowell
|
+1.4 | 146.6 | 53% | 82–87 | ✓ |
Dartmouth
@
Holy Cross
|
+2.8 | 139.5 | 63% | 89–64 | ✗ |
Toledo
@
Michigan State
|
+18.5 | 139.5 | 90% | 69–92 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.