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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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20–6 on winners spread MAE 7.3 26 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Drexel @ UNC Wilmington	+10.8	135.3	86%	53–65	✓
St. John's @ Georgetown	-8.4	148.1	24%	95–83	✓
Oakland @ Youngstown State	+2.4	149.4	59%	85–83	✗
Samford @ VMI	-3.8	146.2	34%	78–58	✓
Georgia Southern @ Coastal Carolina	+2.1	150.5	60%	82–81	✗
Stetson @ North Alabama	+9.5	134.9	86%	70–67	✗
Oral Roberts @ North Dakota	+0.3	139.4	52%	61–72	✓
IU Indianapolis @ Northern Kentucky	+11.6	159.5	87%	72–81	✓
Milwaukee @ Wright State	+7.5	142.6	79%	70–76	✓
Green Bay @ Purdue Fort Wayne	+4.5	145.6	70%	72–54	✗
Jacksonville @ Lipscomb	+12.4	144.8	88%	57–76	✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ Central Arkansas	+2.3	150.4	62%	83–85	✓
Valparaiso @ Southern Illinois	+8.9	141.7	82%	70–75	✓
Evansville @ Illinois State	+17.2	141.0	90%	47–73	✓
California Baptist @ UT Arlington	+1.6	128.0	53%	51–63	✓
Chattanooga @ UNC Greensboro	+0.7	143.1	55%	72–77	✓
Portland State @ Weber State	+2.1	143.1	63%	95–90	✗
Western Illinois @ UT Martin	+14.6	135.8	89%	60–67	✓
Southern Indiana @ SIU Edwardsville	+9.2	134.3	83%	55–59	✓
Morehead State @ Lindenwood	+10.1	146.5	84%	64–77	✓
Cal State Northridge @ UC Davis	+5.9	158.2	73%	80–89	✓
UC Irvine @ Cal State Bakersfield	-7.9	141.1	21%	81–77	✓
Southern Miss @ UL Monroe	-8.4	149.0	20%	87–73	✓
Omaha @ South Dakota State	+6.9	145.6	78%	69–84	✓
Northern Arizona @ Montana	+3.6	139.9	68%	64–78	✓
Tennessee Tech @ Little Rock	-3.5	142.3	38%	58–77	✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.