We are like Greeks. We are like Romans. / Centaurs and monkeys just cluster 'round us "Nemesis" - Shriekback
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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47–22 on winners spread MAE 8.3 69 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Florida State @ North Carolina +14.5 150.3 88% 66–79 ✓
Duquesne @ Davidson +3.6 146.3 70% 89–83 ✗
Temple @ Charlotte +1.4 141.6 61% 76–73 ✗
Seton Hall @ Marquette -8.3 134.3 22% 79–73 ✓
Milwaukee @ Wisconsin +14.1 151.4 88% 60–80 ✓
Pittsburgh @ Miami +12.5 145.0 87% 69–76 ✓
Miami (OH) @ Bowling Green +4.5 146.9 67% 93–83 ✗
South Carolina State @ Tennessee +25.2 144.8 91% 54–105 ✓
Massachusetts @ Eastern Michigan +1.8 140.1 60% 74–80 ✓
Tennessee State @ Tennessee Tech +1.8 145.7 63% 88–76 ✗
New Hampshire @ Nebraska +23.8 138.2 91% 55–86 ✓
Louisville @ California -3.5 148.7 43% 90–70 ✓
Nevada @ Colorado State +3.2 146.0 63% 75–62 ✗
Saint Mary's @ Pepperdine -11.6 135.3 15% 72–45 ✓
Utah State @ Fresno State -12.0 145.4 18% 72–63 ✓
Notre Dame @ Stanford +3.6 146.6 67% 47–40 ✗
Butler @ Creighton +3.4 147.1 63% 85–89 ✓
Gonzaga @ San Diego -13.5 148.4 16% 99–93 ✓
Washington State @ Seattle U +5.0 137.4 73% 55–69 ✓
Santa Clara @ Portland -9.9 147.9 19% 92–85 ✓
San Francisco @ Oregon State -2.1 140.6 42% 62–70 ✗
Pacific @ Loyola Marymount +3.9 134.5 66% 71–80 ✓
San Diego State @ San José State -7.1 144.2 29% 81–68 ✓
New Mexico @ Boise State +4.1 141.1 67% 53–62 ✓
Loyola Chicago @ Rhode Island +14.7 140.9 88% 61–57 ✗
Tulane @ East Carolina -0.7 139.3 49% 79–70 ✓
Army @ Lehigh +2.5 143.1 62% 85–78 ✗
Wake Forest @ NC State +9.9 156.8 82% 57–70 ✓
Mercer @ Furman +2.2 147.0 67% 72–74 ✓
Lamar @ East Texas A&M +0.5 140.9 51% 69–62 ✗
UTSA @ Florida Atlantic +15.8 146.4 89% 70–110 ✓
Loyola Maryland @ American University +8.9 150.9 81% 69–84 ✓
Boston University @ Navy +5.0 138.9 70% 77–82 ✓
Buffalo @ Northern Illinois -7.6 146.6 26% 81–67 ✓
Wofford @ Western Carolina -1.8 144.6 44% 79–74 ✓
South Alabama @ Louisiana -4.8 126.8 28% 63–58 ✓
Virginia @ Virginia Tech -0.8 151.6 50% 85–95 ✗
St. Bonaventure @ VCU +11.5 152.5 83% 82–89 ✓
George Mason @ La Salle -9.0 135.4 20% 80–75 ✓
Fordham @ Dayton +11.3 136.1 87% 56–63 ✓
Rice @ Tulsa +16.8 153.2 90% 48–97 ✓
Bucknell @ Holy Cross +1.7 135.0 62% 58–65 ✓
Radford @ South Carolina Upstate +5.3 152.6 74% 76–69 ✗
High Point @ UNC Asheville -7.3 149.4 32% 87–69 ✓
Charleston Southern @ Gardner-Webb -14.1 148.6 14% 89–79 ✓
Clemson @ Syracuse +0.4 137.4 54% 64–61 ✗
NJIT @ Pennsylvania +11.8 141.4 87% 61–80 ✓
Charleston @ Elon +4.8 151.7 73% 85–81 ✗
Campbell @ Monmouth +1.8 145.5 62% 68–65 ✗
Stony Brook @ William & Mary +12.0 146.4 87% 57–76 ✓
Texas State @ Troy +10.7 150.5 86% 80–100 ✓
App State @ Old Dominion +2.0 132.5 59% 81–73 ✗
Towson @ Hampton -2.6 133.8 36% 62–63 ✗
Colgate @ Lafayette -5.8 143.7 29% 85–77 ✓
Winthrop @ Longwood -8.5 157.5 22% 70–82 ✗
Northeastern @ North Carolina A&T +1.4 145.3 56% 85–74 ✗
Georgia Tech @ Duke +20.5 145.6 91% 79–85 ✓
Saint Joseph's @ Saint Louis +20.3 154.2 90% 79–102 ✓
George Washington @ Richmond +3.2 152.4 64% 99–85 ✗
North Texas @ Memphis +8.6 132.7 79% 48–57 ✓
Wichita State @ UAB +2.7 142.0 62% 75–70 ✗
Kansas City @ Denver +9.1 152.3 82% 74–87 ✓
Georgia State @ Marshall +14.0 142.9 88% 80–84 ✓
Stephen F. Austin @ Northwestern State -11.3 138.7 15% 74–64 ✓
LSU New Orleans @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi +1.9 139.6 61% 69–83 ✓
UConn @ Xavier -11.4 138.9 17% 90–67 ✓
South Dakota @ North Dakota State +11.4 154.1 87% 61–84 ✓
Nicholls @ UT Rio Grande Valley +4.5 142.5 70% 71–69 ✗
DePaul @ Villanova +12.3 135.7 87% 66–71 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.