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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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33–13 on winners spread MAE 8.7 46 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Ohio @ Old Dominion	+0.0	148.4	51%	72–78	✓
Radford @ High Point	+14.3	157.3	88%	77–86	✓
Merrimack @ Rider	-9.4	133.8	16%	73–47	✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ Cal State Fullerton	+10.2	151.9	86%	66–82	✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Wright State	+8.4	146.6	82%	68–73	✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Iona	+7.4	137.2	77%	83–76	✗
Marist @ Fairfield	-2.7	131.7	41%	60–63	✗
UMass Lowell @ UAlbany	+3.9	137.3	66%	89–79	✗
Illinois @ Michigan State	+2.1	142.2	56%	82–85	✓
Clemson @ California	+0.1	134.4	52%	77–55	✗
Utah State @ Wyoming	-5.7	143.5	27%	85–83	✓
Seattle U @ Portland	-1.1	138.2	46%	53–54	✗
Pacific @ Pepperdine	-6.2	135.1	24%	92–59	✓
Georgia Tech @ Stanford	+8.7	144.5	79%	72–95	✓
San Diego State @ Air Force	-16.2	134.3	12%	88–54	✓
Oral Roberts @ St. Thomas	+16.9	147.1	89%	75–92	✓
Eastern Washington @ Montana State	+7.5	144.7	79%	72–71	✗
Abilene Christian @ California Baptist	+9.8	133.1	84%	63–65	✓
Kennesaw State @ Jacksonville State	-0.1	143.1	53%	58–77	✗
Florida @ Texas A&M	-1.2	163.6	47%	86–67	✓
Tennessee @ Kentucky	+2.1	144.2	59%	71–74	✓
Tarleton State @ Southern Utah	-2.3	148.6	42%	62–59	✓
San José State @ Colorado State	+12.3	137.4	87%	57–65	✓
San Diego @ Loyola Marymount	+5.5	145.9	72%	63–83	✓
Northern Arizona @ Weber State	+7.2	148.1	78%	53–72	✓
New Mexico State @ UTEP	-2.0	132.8	43%	88–91	✗
Arizona State @ Colorado	+2.9	155.2	65%	70–78	✓
Fresno State @ Nevada	+10.3	142.3	84%	59–69	✓
Washington @ UCLA	+5.1	142.2	74%	73–77	✓
Boise State @ New Mexico	+5.8	148.3	73%	91–90	✗
UC Irvine @ UC Santa Barbara	+2.1	140.3	63%	79–84	✓
Portland State @ Sacramento State	-4.0	145.3	32%	74–73	✓
Houston @ BYU	+1.6	148.4	53%	77–66	✗
San Francisco @ Saint Mary's	+12.6	139.3	87%	54–79	✓
UC San Diego @ Hawai'i	+6.4	139.2	75%	67–72	✓
Tulsa @ South Florida	+1.4	163.5	56%	74–80	✓
USC @ Penn State	-6.0	152.9	27%	77–75	✓
Michigan @ Ohio State	-9.9	158.5	19%	82–61	✓
Texas Tech @ West Virginia	-3.4	131.1	35%	70–63	✓
UNC Greensboro @ Furman	+11.3	147.9	88%	67–64	✗
Wichita State @ Tulane	-4.2	144.1	35%	75–61	✓
Charlotte @ Memphis	+7.0	142.4	77%	54–77	✓
UCF @ Cincinnati	-0.2	137.2	48%	72–92	✗
Maryland @ Minnesota	+9.7	138.5	82%	67–62	✗
Rice @ UAB	+9.4	150.1	83%	65–71	✓
Northwestern @ Iowa	+11.4	139.5	88%	70–76	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.