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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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90–38 on winners spread MAE 8.3 128 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Dayton @ VCU	+8.8	145.9	82%	73–99	✓
Brown @ Yale	+17.2	142.3	90%	69–81	✓
UConn @ St. John's	+1.0	143.5	49%	72–81	✓
Evansville @ Valparaiso	+9.6	134.3	84%	63–70	✓
Murray State @ Southern Illinois	+1.5	149.3	54%	91–81	✗
Drake @ Illinois State	+10.5	140.3	83%	76–86	✓
Bradley @ Northern Iowa	+4.0	129.9	67%	49–61	✓
Belmont @ UIC	-2.0	146.5	38%	68–62	✓
Nebraska @ Rutgers	-14.5	140.4	14%	80–68	✓
Syracuse @ Virginia	+12.1	147.8	88%	59–72	✓
Arkansas @ Mississippi State	-5.8	158.0	27%	88–68	✓
Louisville @ Wake Forest	-7.3	153.0	26%	88–80	✓
Temple @ East Carolina	-4.1	140.1	30%	81–73	✓
Lafayette @ Army	+1.1	140.2	52%	63–60	✗
Wisconsin @ Indiana	+4.1	153.7	68%	77–78	✓
Villanova @ Georgetown	-3.0	138.0	35%	80–73	✓
Virginia Tech @ NC State	+10.2	157.6	83%	73–82	✓
Drexel @ Elon	+3.9	136.3	68%	82–77	✗
Oregon @ Purdue	+16.1	141.4	90%	64–68	✓
Massachusetts @ Coastal Carolina	+0.2	144.4	49%	91–94	✓
Eastern Michigan @ App State	+6.2	126.9	72%	60–65	✓
Chicago State @ New Haven	+4.6	129.0	67%	63–57	✗
Loyola Maryland @ Boston University	+4.1	148.6	68%	69–78	✓
Wagner @ Central Connecticut	+4.7	136.7	69%	67–84	✓
Saint Francis @ Le Moyne	+10.7	147.1	86%	84–86	✓
East Tennessee State @ VMI	-14.6	141.9	13%	87–70	✓
Missouri @ South Carolina	-0.4	147.3	49%	78–59	✓
Middle Tennessee @ Delaware	-3.6	135.0	35%	88–89	✗
New Hampshire @ Vermont	+7.2	138.7	77%	57–80	✓
Baylor @ Iowa State	+14.4	153.5	88%	69–72	✓
Northern Illinois @ Georgia State	+4.4	135.2	65%	75–74	✗
Richmond @ Rhode Island	+3.8	140.1	69%	77–82	✓
George Washington @ Duquesne	+0.8	154.8	53%	86–88	✓
St. Bonaventure @ Fordham	+0.9	133.2	54%	70–67	✗
North Texas @ UTSA	-11.3	134.9	14%	81–58	✓
Kansas State @ TCU	+7.3	150.2	76%	82–84	✓
Lehigh @ Holy Cross	+0.3	138.1	48%	67–76	✓
Longwood @ Winthrop	+10.2	149.2	86%	74–79	✓
Gardner-Webb @ Presbyterian	+14.6	141.9	89%	62–68	✓
Charleston Southern @ South Carolina Upstate	+0.6	144.7	51%	94–100	✓
Butler @ Marquette	-1.3	155.0	47%	55–70	✗
SMU @ Pittsburgh	-5.1	142.2	30%	86–67	✓
Miami @ Boston College	-7.6	135.8	22%	74–68	✓
Cornell @ Columbia	+3.5	162.6	67%	88–67	✗
Denver @ North Dakota	+1.7	154.8	60%	98–79	✗
Omaha @ North Dakota State	+9.7	144.2	84%	84–92	✓
Cleveland State @ IU Indianapolis	+0.2	167.0	52%	74–82	✓
Detroit Mercy @ Green Bay	+3.9	148.7	67%	63–76	✓
Siena @ Saint Peter's	-0.0	136.4	47%	65–70	✗
Niagara @ Quinnipiac	+11.3	134.0	87%	55–56	✓
Sacred Heart @ Manhattan	-1.5	154.4	43%	68–80	✗
Princeton @ Pennsylvania	+5.1	141.3	70%	60–61	✓
Campbell @ North Carolina A&T	+0.3	152.8	51%	79–71	✗
The Citadel @ Chattanooga	+6.5	138.7	75%	78–71	✗
Ole Miss @ Texas	+9.3	143.9	82%	68–79	✓
Jacksonville @ West Georgia	+0.6	139.6	50%	73–87	✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ Bellarmine	+0.5	152.5	54%	65–81	✓
Missouri State @ Liberty	+11.3	140.8	85%	76–79	✓
Utah @ Kansas	+16.6	148.0	90%	59–71	✓
William & Mary @ Hampton	-4.7	143.7	29%	74–77	✗
La Salle @ Saint Louis	+21.0	144.8	91%	58–82	✓
Western Michigan @ Texas State	+3.1	143.2	65%	61–77	✓
Kent State @ Southern Miss	-2.2	148.5	35%	65–66	✗
Ball State @ UL Monroe	-2.7	135.3	32%	73–68	✓
Bowling Green @ Arkansas State	+0.3	145.8	54%	54–91	✓
Florida International @ Western Kentucky	+3.0	146.8	67%	70–80	✓
Sam Houston @ Louisiana Tech	-5.6	137.1	26%	78–87	✗
Oklahoma @ Vanderbilt	+14.0	157.0	88%	92–91	✗
Mercyhurst @ Fairleigh Dickinson	-1.2	132.3	40%	52–55	✗
Oklahoma State @ Arizona	+17.1	161.2	89%	47–84	✓
Miami (OH) @ Marshall	-0.9	160.0	40%	90–74	✓
Buffalo @ South Alabama	+1.9	139.5	57%	69–81	✓
Central Michigan @ Louisiana	+0.6	131.3	52%	80–85	✓
Toledo @ James Madison	-0.5	146.2	45%	71–73	✗
Saint Joseph's @ George Mason	+8.6	134.4	81%	52–60	✓
UC Riverside @ Cal State Northridge	+7.3	150.3	78%	74–88	✓
DePaul @ Providence	+5.2	151.0	69%	72–90	✓
Florida State @ Notre Dame	+4.7	148.1	70%	82–79	✗
American University @ Navy	+6.9	130.6	77%	73–82	✓
Stonehill @ Long Island University	+10.7	132.0	87%	54–61	✓
Maine @ Bryant	+0.9	125.2	53%	67–73	✓
Binghamton @ NJIT	+10.7	141.2	85%	64–73	✓
Towson @ Hofstra	+4.7	133.7	71%	49–71	✓
Northeastern @ Stony Brook	+6.5	148.0	77%	55–69	✓
Western Carolina @ Wofford	+6.8	151.4	77%	66–77	✓
Alabama @ Auburn	+3.5	168.6	62%	96–92	✗
North Florida @ Queens University	+10.6	170.3	87%	72–91	✓
Morehead State @ UT Martin	+10.2	130.9	83%	61–55	✗
SIU Edwardsville @ Little Rock	-1.8	130.0	41%	71–61	✓
Eastern Illinois @ Tennessee Tech	+2.1	137.6	59%	60–54	✗
UT Arlington @ Utah Valley	+8.1	138.5	79%	60–81	✓
South Carolina State @ Howard	+13.5	139.6	88%	57–85	✓
North Carolina Central @ Norfolk State	+3.5	142.9	66%	68–75	✓
Grand Canyon @ UNLV	-4.4	144.3	31%	78–80	✗
Robert Morris @ Youngstown State	+2.6	143.7	65%	72–66	✗
Houston Christian @ SE Louisiana	+2.5	132.3	62%	47–55	✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ Nicholls	+0.6	131.6	50%	83–76	✗
Western Illinois @ Tennessee State	+12.9	147.0	88%	56–83	✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Morgan State	-1.8	134.0	41%	71–79	✗
Southern Indiana @ Southeast Missouri State	+10.3	136.3	84%	65–90	✓
Colgate @ Bucknell	-3.9	142.5	32%	78–59	✓
Milwaukee @ Northern Kentucky	+6.1	149.3	72%	62–67	✓
Harvard @ Dartmouth	+0.3	140.0	50%	71–58	✗
Cal Poly @ UC Davis	+6.8	160.1	77%	58–67	✓
Incarnate Word @ McNeese	+13.9	142.1	88%	64–81	✓
Stetson @ Eastern Kentucky	+6.5	148.3	75%	88–100	✓
North Alabama @ Austin Peay	+12.3	141.4	88%	62–91	✓
Central Arkansas @ Lipscomb	+2.6	150.2	63%	86–78	✗
Alabama State @ Grambling	+4.3	140.8	69%	47–57	✓
Prairie View A&M @ Bethune-Cookman	+10.2	149.7	85%	76–82	✓
Delaware State @ Coppin State	-3.6	131.5	34%	47–65	✗
Gonzaga @ Oregon State	-14.4	143.7	15%	81–61	✓
Akron @ Troy	-4.4	156.3	32%	69–79	✗
Texas Southern @ Florida A&M	+2.2	142.0	61%	62–57	✗
Santa Clara @ Washington State	-5.7	150.6	28%	96–92	✓
Alabama A&M @ Southern	+4.1	143.8	69%	68–81	✓
Seton Hall @ Creighton	+0.5	134.4	52%	68–69	✓
South Dakota @ South Dakota State	+8.2	155.2	81%	68–67	✗
Mercer @ Samford	-1.5	153.4	44%	49–69	✗
Lamar @ Stephen F. Austin	+12.4	137.1	86%	74–84	✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ LSU New Orleans	+0.7	145.9	53%	95–76	✗
Northwestern State @ East Texas A&M	+2.3	139.4	59%	48–52	✓
Northern Colorado @ Idaho State	+0.7	147.4	51%	69–61	✗
Idaho @ Montana	+2.5	144.1	64%	68–73	✓
Georgia @ LSU	-0.2	161.5	50%	83–71	✓
Jackson State @ Mississippi Valley State	-5.6	140.0	25%	97–81	✓
Duke @ North Carolina	-4.4	141.1	28%	68–71	✗
Alcorn State @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff	+7.5	147.1	78%	77–84	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.