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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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35–17 on winners spread MAE 9.0 52 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Valparaiso @ Illinois State +8.3 135.8 79% 64–86 ✓
Murray State @ Indiana State -3.3 157.9 32% 74–72 ✓
Marist @ Merrimack +1.1 124.2 53% 56–81 ✓
Winthrop @ Gardner-Webb -15.2 147.3 13% 103–85 ✓
UNC Asheville @ Longwood -0.5 140.2 48% 79–74 ✓
Presbyterian @ Charleston Southern +3.7 144.8 65% 67–84 ✓
High Point @ South Carolina Upstate -10.4 149.7 16% 95–70 ✓
Robert Morris @ Cleveland State -2.5 152.4 40% 85–68 ✓
Youngstown State @ Oakland +5.1 153.9 75% 86–82 ✗
Detroit Mercy @ Wright State +9.7 147.5 84% 77–74 ✗
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Green Bay +3.0 144.8 65% 59–76 ✓
Central Connecticut @ New Haven -1.5 128.9 43% 81–76 ✓
Stonehill @ Chicago State -0.3 128.9 46% 55–68 ✗
Long Island University @ Wagner -6.0 140.0 24% 67–57 ✓
Mercyhurst @ Le Moyne +1.7 133.7 58% 57–58 ✓
Saint Francis @ Fairleigh Dickinson +6.6 141.3 75% 59–66 ✓
Stony Brook @ Towson +2.7 133.6 60% 57–69 ✓
Hofstra @ Charleston -0.8 141.2 48% 66–62 ✓
Monmouth @ Drexel +1.5 134.0 61% 93–73 ✗
William & Mary @ Northeastern -3.9 157.6 29% 94–67 ✓
Elon @ UNC Wilmington +8.3 147.7 80% 54–65 ✓
Georgia State @ James Madison +5.3 138.2 71% 79–81 ✓
Delaware @ Florida International +6.8 144.0 75% 68–66 ✗
UIC @ Drake +0.3 142.5 51% 80–70 ✗
Tennessee Tech @ Morehead State +3.8 142.6 65% 66–73 ✓
Evansville @ Southern Illinois +10.7 137.9 86% 60–86 ✓
Kansas City @ Oral Roberts +5.2 141.8 69% 60–69 ✓
St. Thomas @ Omaha -5.0 149.3 28% 94–98 ✗
Coastal Carolina @ Louisiana -2.5 134.4 40% 69–65 ✓
Sacramento State @ Northern Colorado +8.1 156.5 80% 79–95 ✓
Portland State @ Northern Arizona -7.9 135.2 21% 77–68 ✓
South Alabama @ Southern Miss +0.6 137.2 50% 84–78 ✗
Southeast Missouri State @ SIU Edwardsville +1.0 131.5 53% 56–74 ✓
Little Rock @ Western Illinois -4.6 135.9 26% 77–58 ✓
UT Martin @ Lindenwood -0.5 135.5 46% 74–75 ✗
California Baptist @ Southern Utah -7.1 140.5 22% 83–66 ✓
Louisiana Tech @ Missouri State +4.0 134.7 66% 79–78 ✗
Northern Iowa @ Belmont +6.1 134.6 73% 86–91 ✓
Oregon State @ San Francisco +7.0 140.9 77% 90–63 ✗
Memphis @ North Texas -3.1 135.1 40% 69–76 ✗
South Dakota State @ Denver +0.8 154.2 55% 61–79 ✓
Weber State @ Idaho +4.3 148.0 69% 83–72 ✗
Idaho State @ Eastern Washington +2.4 146.3 63% 75–88 ✓
Tennessee State @ Southern Indiana -6.1 143.4 25% 73–71 ✓
Utah Valley @ Utah Tech -4.0 146.0 36% 77–81 ✗
UT Arlington @ Abilene Christian -2.7 133.1 39% 63–67 ✗
Hawai'i @ Cal State Bakersfield -14.3 144.6 13% 89–74 ✓
UC Santa Barbara @ UC Riverside -6.0 144.5 26% 76–68 ✓
Cal State Fullerton @ Long Beach State -0.2 150.4 49% 86–82 ✓
UC Irvine @ Cal Poly -5.6 150.0 28% 73–79 ✗
UC Davis @ UC San Diego +4.6 141.5 69% 51–68 ✓
Manhattan @ Niagara +0.6 136.3 52% 76–69 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.