And I'm telling you son, well, it ain't no fun staring straight down a forty-four. "Gimme Three Steps" - Lynyrd Skynyrd
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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81–42 on winners spread MAE 9.3 123 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
George Mason @ George Washington +4.1 142.2 62% 53–72 ✓
Cornell @ Princeton -0.8 153.6 46% 89–65 ✓
Saint Peter's @ Sacred Heart -0.8 143.3 46% 71–78 ✗
Yale @ Dartmouth -7.9 147.5 20% 83–70 ✓
Quinnipiac @ Siena +3.4 140.3 66% 74–62 ✗
Mount St. Mary's @ Rider -4.3 133.4 29% 65–55 ✓
Iona @ Canisius -6.1 133.6 25% 69–63 ✓
Brown @ Harvard +7.9 130.7 78% 53–56 ✓
Columbia @ Pennsylvania +2.6 144.7 64% 67–76 ✓
Michigan State @ Wisconsin -1.0 147.6 45% 71–92 ✗
Saint Louis @ Loyola Chicago -16.7 150.0 13% 86–59 ✓
Massachusetts @ Akron +12.2 156.7 87% 92–99 ✓
Ohio @ Miami (OH) +12.8 159.0 88% 74–90 ✓
UNLV @ Boise State +13.3 156.0 88% 86–83 ✗
Hampton @ North Carolina A&T -1.3 137.8 46% 70–71 ✗
Clemson @ Duke +13.8 130.9 87% 54–67 ✓
Fordham @ Rhode Island +4.8 131.6 69% 70–66 ✗
TCU @ Oklahoma State +1.7 151.3 60% 95–92 ✗
Georgia Tech @ Notre Dame +9.0 147.1 80% 74–89 ✓
California @ Boston College -3.8 132.5 32% 86–75 ✓
Navy @ Colgate +1.2 137.1 55% 84–80 ✗
Samford @ East Tennessee State +8.0 145.1 79% 82–72 ✗
UCLA @ Michigan +17.5 151.4 89% 56–86 ✓
Kansas @ Iowa State +7.0 143.0 71% 56–74 ✓
Northwestern @ Nebraska +12.8 142.8 87% 49–68 ✓
St. John's @ Providence -6.0 167.6 27% 79–69 ✓
Texas A&M @ Vanderbilt +10.5 165.9 82% 69–82 ✓
Bucknell @ Boston University +6.2 145.3 75% 69–82 ✓
Long Island University @ New Haven -7.0 128.6 22% 52–55 ✗
Chicago State @ Le Moyne +7.1 141.0 75% 63–81 ✓
UMBC @ New Hampshire -3.1 137.2 35% 85–63 ✓
Furman @ VMI -11.5 139.4 14% 90–72 ✓
Mercer @ The Citadel -9.9 146.3 16% 70–54 ✓
Pittsburgh @ North Carolina +13.3 140.3 88% 65–79 ✓
East Carolina @ Rice +4.6 142.2 68% 85–75 ✗
Army @ American University +8.8 140.8 80% 63–75 ✓
Presbyterian @ UNC Asheville +6.5 135.9 76% 58–57 ✗
High Point @ Gardner-Webb -16.0 153.1 13% 112–87 ✓
Florida State @ Virginia Tech +7.7 148.4 76% 92–69 ✗
SMU @ Syracuse -1.5 155.9 45% 78–79 ✗
North Dakota State @ North Dakota -5.9 149.4 31% 83–66 ✓
Western Michigan @ Eastern Michigan +5.6 143.8 75% 76–62 ✗
Kent State @ Ball State -7.0 137.5 24% 75–68 ✓
Wagner @ Stonehill +0.7 129.6 52% 68–57 ✗
Mercyhurst @ Saint Francis -4.3 135.1 29% 94–79 ✓
Central Connecticut @ Fairleigh Dickinson -0.3 134.9 47% 63–57 ✓
Bryant @ Vermont +10.6 135.6 86% 63–90 ✓
Elon @ William & Mary +8.2 158.2 80% 81–78 ✗
West Georgia @ Central Arkansas +10.9 148.2 87% 62–79 ✓
Stetson @ Florida Gulf Coast +9.0 147.5 83% 76–78 ✓
Liberty @ UTEP -6.5 135.1 24% 73–64 ✓
Louisiana Tech @ Florida International +3.9 141.1 67% 64–77 ✓
Charleston Southern @ Radford +2.1 157.9 62% 80–90 ✓
Villanova @ Creighton -2.7 141.1 37% 80–69 ✓
Kentucky @ Florida +9.7 150.0 82% 83–92 ✓
Penn State @ Oregon +5.3 144.3 71% 72–83 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ Longwood +2.5 142.6 62% 75–82 ✓
Marquette @ Xavier +4.2 150.6 69% 88–96 ✓
NJIT @ Maine -2.0 134.6 35% 67–58 ✓
UL Monroe @ Texas State +13.0 145.6 88% 84–95 ✓
South Alabama @ Arkansas State +6.0 143.9 73% 92–88 ✗
Southern Utah @ UT Arlington +9.9 142.0 86% 78–73 ✗
Delaware @ Missouri State +6.2 134.5 74% 76–67 ✗
Florida A&M @ Jackson State +0.1 144.8 48% 60–80 ✓
Georgia State @ Old Dominion +4.2 140.5 66% 55–78 ✓
Georgia @ Oklahoma -2.4 164.3 44% 78–94 ✗
Tennessee State @ Morehead State -0.7 146.6 48% 86–94 ✗
Kansas State @ Houston +17.3 141.8 90% 64–78 ✓
Colorado @ BYU +12.8 161.9 87% 86–90 ✓
Louisville @ Baylor -7.7 156.5 22% 82–71 ✓
Wyoming @ Colorado State +3.0 136.8 66% 68–79 ✓
Duquesne @ St. Bonaventure +1.4 153.7 58% 78–73 ✗
Stanford @ Wake Forest +3.2 149.9 64% 63–68 ✓
Miami @ NC State +5.4 155.2 71% 77–76 ✗
UAlbany @ Binghamton -3.6 136.5 30% 77–74 ✓
Hofstra @ UNC Wilmington +3.0 134.4 63% 66–70 ✓
App State @ James Madison -0.4 131.6 45% 58–69 ✗
Portland State @ Northern Colorado +1.4 142.7 60% 65–77 ✓
North Florida @ Jacksonville +5.0 148.7 68% 56–63 ✓
Lipscomb @ Queens University +1.0 159.0 54% 81–87 ✓
Tarleton State @ Abilene Christian -0.1 133.9 51% 59–73 ✗
Delaware State @ Norfolk State +9.4 134.7 82% 58–75 ✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Alabama State +0.3 144.5 51% 61–79 ✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Alcorn State -6.9 144.4 23% 55–57 ✗
Lamar @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi +1.9 133.0 62% 63–76 ✓
SE Louisiana @ Northwestern State +0.9 128.5 56% 66–69 ✓
LSU New Orleans @ Houston Christian -1.6 144.9 46% 60–61 ✗
UT Martin @ SIU Edwardsville -0.3 121.9 47% 81–76 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Lindenwood +2.0 148.6 62% 73–61 ✗
Little Rock @ Eastern Illinois +0.3 131.5 54% 72–78 ✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Howard +11.2 133.1 82% 53–79 ✓
Purdue @ Iowa +0.9 142.6 56% 78–57 ✗
Lehigh @ Lafayette +0.1 138.2 47% 78–69 ✗
Loyola Marymount @ Pepperdine -5.6 141.5 27% 89–90 ✗
Mississippi Valley State @ Alabama A&M +14.2 135.6 89% 65–72 ✓
Grand Canyon @ San José State -7.9 135.4 19% 94–79 ✓
Coppin State @ North Carolina Central +10.9 143.2 86% 58–56 ✗
Air Force @ Fresno State +15.3 136.7 89% 63–93 ✓
Toledo @ Bowling Green +4.4 143.1 69% 70–80 ✓
Northern Illinois @ Central Michigan +2.6 139.3 63% 46–88 ✓
Wofford @ UNC Greensboro -2.0 150.0 42% 89–99 ✗
Western Carolina @ Chattanooga -0.3 144.6 51% 81–76 ✓
Long Beach State @ UC Davis +5.9 144.4 74% 54–71 ✓
Nicholls @ Incarnate Word +2.0 145.8 62% 91–83 ✗
Idaho State @ Idaho +4.8 142.9 70% 69–99 ✓
Weber State @ Eastern Washington +1.4 154.9 59% 66–84 ✓
Tennessee Tech @ Southern Indiana -0.5 137.5 43% 82–74 ✓
Sam Houston @ Kennesaw State -0.5 156.4 47% 83–79 ✓
New Mexico State @ Jacksonville State +1.5 134.5 58% 79–70 ✗
Grambling @ Texas Southern -0.1 137.4 49% 79–82 ✗
Southern @ Prairie View A&M -0.8 157.2 44% 87–82 ✓
Stephen F. Austin @ UT Rio Grande Valley -0.0 140.1 46% 66–57 ✓
Bellarmine @ Austin Peay +11.5 150.0 86% 70–90 ✓
VCU @ Richmond -5.2 148.8 28% 78–67 ✓
West Virginia @ UCF +4.7 138.1 70% 74–67 ✗
Brown @ Dartmouth +4.8 135.2 67% 79–76 ✗
Columbia @ Princeton +0.2 138.3 51% 75–65 ✗
Cornell @ Pennsylvania +1.6 160.5 58% 76–82 ✓
McNeese @ East Texas A&M -11.2 137.8 15% 97–54 ✓
LSU @ Tennessee +12.0 148.4 86% 63–73 ✓
Texas Tech @ Arizona +11.8 151.4 85% 78–75 ✗
Yale @ Harvard -3.6 136.9 31% 76–75 ✓
Mississippi State @ Ole Miss +5.3 142.2 70% 90–78 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.