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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
16–14 on winners
spread MAE 11.1
30 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
South Carolina
@
Florida
|
+19.2 | 150.6 | 91% | 62–76 | ✓ |
North Carolina
@
NC State
|
+2.3 | 155.0 | 61% | 58–82 | ✓ |
Saint Louis
@
Rhode Island
|
-11.1 | 147.9 | 16% | 76–81 | ✗ |
Louisville
@
SMU
|
-1.9 | 163.9 | 45% | 85–95 | ✗ |
Miami (OH)
@
Massachusetts
|
-5.7 | 160.8 | 25% | 86–77 | ✓ |
TCU
@
UCF
|
+3.0 | 149.1 | 64% | 71–82 | ✓ |
Kent State
@
Bowling Green
|
+3.8 | 146.1 | 66% | 78–71 | ✗ |
Ball State
@
Ohio
|
+8.3 | 138.1 | 81% | 57–69 | ✓ |
Akron
@
Western Michigan
|
-11.6 | 158.9 | 15% | 90–73 | ✓ |
George Washington
@
VCU
|
+7.7 | 154.2 | 80% | 75–89 | ✓ |
Virginia Tech
@
Miami
|
+8.1 | 148.6 | 80% | 66–67 | ✓ |
UCLA
@
Michigan State
|
+9.2 | 142.2 | 81% | 59–82 | ✓ |
Wisconsin
@
Ohio State
|
+1.9 | 157.7 | 61% | 69–86 | ✓ |
Fresno State
@
Wyoming
|
+5.5 | 142.2 | 71% | 82–92 | ✓ |
Southeast Missouri State
@
UT Martin
|
+4.0 | 132.1 | 68% | 56–53 | ✗ |
Nebraska
@
Iowa
|
-0.0 | 136.0 | 49% | 52–57 | ✗ |
Baylor
@
Kansas State
|
-2.6 | 157.0 | 38% | 74–90 | ✗ |
Air Force
@
New Mexico
|
+22.1 | 142.0 | 91% | 61–98 | ✓ |
Georgia
@
Kentucky
|
+5.1 | 162.4 | 73% | 86–78 | ✗ |
LSU
@
Texas
|
+8.5 | 151.4 | 81% | 85–88 | ✓ |
Nevada
@
San José State
|
-10.0 | 141.5 | 17% | 71–87 | ✗ |
Grand Canyon
@
San Diego State
|
+7.8 | 138.6 | 77% | 73–63 | ✗ |
Minnesota
@
Oregon
|
+2.1 | 134.1 | 60% | 61–44 | ✗ |
Texas Tech
@
Arizona State
|
-6.4 | 148.6 | 26% | 67–72 | ✗ |
Rutgers
@
Penn State
|
+5.2 | 147.3 | 72% | 85–72 | ✗ |
Lafayette
@
Holy Cross
|
+2.1 | 131.8 | 59% | 86–83 | ✗ |
VMI
@
Wofford
|
+14.1 | 151.2 | 88% | 76–82 | ✓ |
Butler
@
Georgetown
|
+2.9 | 145.4 | 65% | 93–89 | ✗ |
Cleveland State
@
Youngstown State
|
+10.6 | 154.9 | 84% | 82–106 | ✓ |
East Tennessee State
@
Furman
|
-0.2 | 140.3 | 50% | 78–69 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.