But where the fuck is the waitress at with my drinks! "Stand Up" - Ludacris
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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27–10 on winners spread MAE 8.7 37 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Duke @ Notre Dame -13.5 138.9 14% 100–56 ✓
Cincinnati @ Texas Tech +11.3 141.4 84% 68–80 ✓
NC State @ Virginia +5.9 152.3 74% 61–90 ✓
Saint Louis @ Dayton -6.3 151.0 25% 62–77 ✗
West Virginia @ Oklahoma State +1.9 139.1 61% 84–91 ✓
Northwestern @ Indiana +9.5 145.7 82% 72–68 ✗
Marquette @ Georgetown +5.7 145.9 71% 76–60 ✗
Western Michigan @ Bowling Green +10.1 145.8 86% 88–79 ✗
Northern Illinois @ Toledo +11.1 142.9 87% 69–79 ✓
Massachusetts @ Ball State -5.5 138.2 29% 73–74 ✗
Central Michigan @ Kent State +9.6 152.5 84% 81–83 ✓
Buffalo @ Akron +12.3 155.5 87% 85–99 ✓
Louisiana @ Troy +11.0 135.1 86% 59–78 ✓
Old Dominion @ Marshall +6.3 152.1 76% 88–97 ✓
Kentucky @ South Carolina -5.9 148.1 28% 72–63 ✓
Coastal Carolina @ Georgia State -0.1 136.2 47% 76–71 ✓
Southern Indiana @ Morehead State +8.1 141.4 81% 63–64 ✓
Bradley @ UIC +3.7 140.2 69% 86–93 ✓
Minnesota @ Michigan +18.7 142.1 90% 67–77 ✓
Southern Miss @ Arkansas State +9.6 151.4 81% 84–89 ✓
Arizona @ Baylor -9.2 155.6 19% 87–80 ✓
Iowa State @ Utah -12.5 141.3 16% 75–59 ✓
Fresno State @ Colorado State +7.7 141.5 78% 70–74 ✓
Arizona State @ TCU +5.6 146.1 73% 78–90 ✓
Wyoming @ Boise State +5.8 146.6 72% 62–72 ✓
Miami @ Florida State -0.8 149.0 47% 83–73 ✓
San José State @ Air Force -6.5 137.3 26% 86–80 ✓
Auburn @ Oklahoma -1.4 158.1 47% 79–91 ✗
Tennessee @ Missouri -4.2 142.2 34% 69–73 ✗
UCF @ BYU +9.9 163.1 85% 97–84 ✗
New Mexico @ Nevada +0.4 146.9 54% 60–67 ✓
USC @ UCLA +6.1 151.0 73% 62–81 ✓
Bucknell @ Army +2.4 138.2 60% 75–73 ✗
Wake Forest @ Boston College -5.3 141.9 28% 67–68 ✗
Morgan State @ South Carolina State -0.2 145.9 44% 90–83 ✓
The Citadel @ Furman +12.2 140.6 88% 51–72 ✓
Oakland @ IU Indianapolis -5.6 165.1 26% 86–74 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.