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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
8–4 on winners
spread MAE 6.0
12 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VCU
@
Illinois
|
+7.5 | 148.7 | 76% | 55–76 | ✓ |
Liberty
@
Nevada
|
+8.7 | 145.8 | 79% | 63–73 | ✓ |
Vanderbilt
@
Nebraska
|
-1.6 | 143.2 | 45% | 72–74 | ✗ |
High Point
@
Arkansas
|
+9.0 | 164.9 | 80% | 88–94 | ✓ |
Miami
@
Purdue
|
+5.8 | 146.9 | 72% | 69–79 | ✓ |
Kentucky
@
Iowa State
|
+7.4 | 145.2 | 75% | 63–82 | ✓ |
Illinois State
@
Wake Forest
|
+6.6 | 142.0 | 74% | 78–75 | ✗ |
St. John's
@
Kansas
|
-2.4 | 138.9 | 39% | 67–65 | ✓ |
Tennessee
@
Virginia
|
+0.3 | 138.2 | 51% | 79–72 | ✗ |
Seattle U
@
Auburn
|
+12.1 | 139.5 | 87% | 85–91 | ✓ |
UNLV
@
Tulsa
|
+9.1 | 162.4 | 80% | 66–77 | ✓ |
Iowa
@
Florida
|
+8.7 | 141.6 | 79% | 73–72 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.