Then she opened up a book of poems and handed it to me, written by an Italian poet from the thirteenth century. "Tangled Up in Blue" - Bob Dylan
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Efficiency Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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33–19 on winners spread MAE 9.1 52 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Valparaiso @ Illinois State +7.7 136.0 79% 64–86 ✓
Murray State @ Indiana State -3.6 158.1 39% 74–72 ✓
Marist @ Merrimack +2.1 126.9 62% 56–81 ✓
Winthrop @ Gardner-Webb -14.0 147.7 13% 103–85 ✓
UNC Asheville @ Longwood +0.3 140.0 55% 79–74 ✗
Presbyterian @ Charleston Southern +3.7 146.5 61% 67–84 ✓
High Point @ South Carolina Upstate -11.2 151.7 16% 95–70 ✓
Robert Morris @ Cleveland State -3.2 154.7 39% 85–68 ✓
Youngstown State @ Oakland +5.6 154.8 74% 86–82 ✗
Detroit Mercy @ Wright State +10.1 150.5 86% 77–74 ✗
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Green Bay +2.0 146.8 64% 59–76 ✓
Central Connecticut @ New Haven -1.2 128.9 40% 81–76 ✓
Stonehill @ Chicago State -0.6 130.0 51% 55–68 ✗
Long Island University @ Wagner -4.3 139.6 26% 67–57 ✓
Mercyhurst @ Le Moyne +2.9 134.6 62% 57–58 ✓
Saint Francis @ Fairleigh Dickinson +6.6 141.4 75% 59–66 ✓
Stony Brook @ Towson +5.5 135.5 69% 57–69 ✓
Hofstra @ Charleston -1.1 144.2 54% 66–62 ✓
Monmouth @ Drexel +3.0 135.2 62% 93–73 ✗
William & Mary @ Northeastern -2.5 161.6 43% 94–67 ✓
Elon @ UNC Wilmington +8.6 148.8 81% 54–65 ✓
Georgia State @ James Madison +5.9 141.5 71% 79–81 ✓
Delaware @ Florida International +6.8 144.6 78% 68–66 ✗
UIC @ Drake +1.7 144.4 54% 80–70 ✗
Tennessee Tech @ Morehead State +4.0 141.5 65% 66–73 ✓
Evansville @ Southern Illinois +10.0 141.0 85% 60–86 ✓
Kansas City @ Oral Roberts +4.2 143.1 71% 60–69 ✓
St. Thomas @ Omaha -4.3 150.4 31% 94–98 ✗
Coastal Carolina @ Louisiana -3.0 135.0 42% 69–65 ✓
Sacramento State @ Northern Colorado +10.0 158.8 83% 79–95 ✓
Portland State @ Northern Arizona -7.4 135.9 23% 77–68 ✓
South Alabama @ Southern Miss +0.4 139.2 53% 84–78 ✗
Southeast Missouri State @ SIU Edwardsville +0.9 133.6 43% 56–74 ✓
Little Rock @ Western Illinois -4.8 132.9 25% 77–58 ✓
UT Martin @ Lindenwood -0.2 138.3 51% 74–75 ✗
California Baptist @ Southern Utah -7.8 142.4 22% 83–66 ✓
Louisiana Tech @ Missouri State +3.6 133.3 59% 79–78 ✗
Northern Iowa @ Belmont +5.6 134.2 71% 86–91 ✓
Oregon State @ San Francisco +7.8 143.1 81% 90–63 ✗
Memphis @ North Texas -2.0 135.4 37% 69–76 ✗
South Dakota State @ Denver -1.0 153.0 42% 61–79 ✗
Weber State @ Idaho +3.7 149.4 71% 83–72 ✗
Idaho State @ Eastern Washington +2.0 145.1 59% 75–88 ✓
Tennessee State @ Southern Indiana -5.3 145.2 26% 73–71 ✓
Utah Valley @ Utah Tech -6.2 144.6 24% 77–81 ✗
UT Arlington @ Abilene Christian -2.3 131.6 41% 63–67 ✗
Hawai'i @ Cal State Bakersfield -10.0 147.0 21% 89–74 ✓
UC Santa Barbara @ UC Riverside -6.9 142.7 27% 76–68 ✓
Cal State Fullerton @ Long Beach State +1.1 153.2 56% 86–82 ✗
UC Irvine @ Cal Poly -4.3 153.5 29% 73–79 ✗
UC Davis @ UC San Diego +7.9 144.5 81% 51–68 ✓
Manhattan @ Niagara -0.2 135.7 46% 76–69 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.