Betting Lines
| Spread | ECU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | UTSA +164 ECU -198 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ECU +1 | 163 | Lost |
| Massey | ECU -4.7 (+3.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.9 (+15.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 44% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ECU -3.6 (+2.6) | 147.1 (+15.9) | 35% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ECU -3.3 (+2.3) | 147.1 (+15.9) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ECU -3.5 (+2.5) | 143.6 (+19.4) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ECU -3.9 (+2.9) | 145.8 (+17.2) | 36% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | ECU 88 – 72 UTSA |
| Mar 14, 2025 | ECU 70 – 65 UTSA |
| Feb 23, 2025 | ECU 96 – 89 UTSA |
| Feb 9, 2025 | ECU 80 – 79 UTSA |
| Feb 10, 2024 | ECU 84 – 73 UTSA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTSA | ECU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-25 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 1-17 | 6-12 |
| Home | 2-12 | 7-10 |
| Away | 2-12 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L5 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.3 | 71.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 82.9 | 77.7 |
| Massey | -14.1 (#345) | -6.5 (#268) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.98 (#329) | -1.21 (#275) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.39 (#325) | -1.70 (#283) |
| RPI | 0.429 (#315) | 0.455 (#263) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTSA | ECU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.5% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 28.8% | 28.1% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.5% | 45.7% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 29.9% | 32.3% |
| FT Rate | 20.3% | 27.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.8% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.9% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 62.0% | 67.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.4% | 23.6% |
Game Analysis
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