East Carolina
Pirates
70
–
65
FINAL
Neutral
Conference
American Athletic Conference
UTSA
Roadrunners
Betting Lines
| Spread | ECU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | ECU -215 UTSA +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ECU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ECU +5 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | ECU -1.2 (+3.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.3 (-18.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ECU -1.5 (+3.5) | 150.8 (-15.8) | 56% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ECU -1.2 (+3.8) | 147.7 (-12.7) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ECU -1.0 (+4.0) | 148.6 (-13.6) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ECU -1.1 (+3.9) | 150.2 (-15.2) | 56% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | ECU 82 – 81 UTSA |
| Feb 12, 2026 | ECU 88 – 72 UTSA |
| Feb 23, 2025 | ECU 96 – 89 UTSA |
| Feb 9, 2025 | ECU 80 – 79 UTSA |
| Feb 10, 2024 | ECU 84 – 73 UTSA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ECU | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 12-19 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 6-12 |
| Home | 12-6 | 7-7 |
| Away | 4-6 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.0 | 74.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.9 | 77.5 |
| Massey | -0.7 (#171) | -1.8 (#192) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.01 (#165) | -0.67 (#232) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.19 (#181) | -0.68 (#218) |
| RPI | 0.499 (#174) | 0.491 (#193) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ECU | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 30.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.5% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 34.3% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 26.1% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 53.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 20.9% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 64.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 32.2% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.