Betting Lines
| Spread | ECU -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | ECU -425 UTSA +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ECU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ECU +7 | 185 | Won |
| Massey | ECU -6.1 (+0.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.0 (+32.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ECU -5.0 (+2.0) | 149.4 (+35.6) | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ECU -5.4 (+1.6) | 149.1 (+35.9) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ECU -5.0 (+2.0) | 147.5 (+37.5) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ECU -4.9 (+2.1) | 148.7 (+36.3) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | ECU 82 – 81 UTSA |
| Feb 12, 2026 | ECU 88 – 72 UTSA |
| Mar 14, 2025 | ECU 70 – 65 UTSA |
| Feb 9, 2025 | ECU 80 – 79 UTSA |
| Feb 10, 2024 | ECU 84 – 73 UTSA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ECU | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 12-19 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 6-12 |
| Home | 12-6 | 7-7 |
| Away | 4-6 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.0 | 74.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.9 | 77.5 |
| Massey | 0.0 (#159) | -3.0 (#214) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.06 (#173) | -0.79 (#243) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.27 (#192) | -0.81 (#232) |
| RPI | 0.495 (#189) | 0.484 (#208) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ECU | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 41.1% |
| 3PT% | 30.6% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.9 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.2% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 34.9% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 25.5% | 23.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 54.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 20.8% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 64.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 32.2% |
Game Analysis
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