Betting Lines
| Spread | ECU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | UTSA -111 ECU -115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ECU +11 | 157 | Lost |
| Massey | ECU -1.9 (-9.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.4 (+2.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ECU -2.1 (-8.9) | 147.9 (+9.1) | 38% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ECU -1.9 (-9.1) | 148.1 (+8.9) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ECU -2.2 (-8.8) | 147.8 (+9.2) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ECU -1.8 (-9.2) | 148.3 (+8.7) | 40% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | ECU 82 – 81 UTSA |
| Feb 12, 2026 | ECU 88 – 72 UTSA |
| Mar 14, 2025 | ECU 70 – 65 UTSA |
| Feb 23, 2025 | ECU 96 – 89 UTSA |
| Feb 9, 2025 | ECU 80 – 79 UTSA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTSA | ECU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 7-11 |
| Home | 7-9 | 11-9 |
| Away | 4-11 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.1 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.6 | 70.6 |
| Massey | -6.7 (#287) | -1.5 (#188) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.22 (#286) | -0.42 (#212) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.57 (#293) | -0.47 (#213) |
| RPI | 0.439 (#289) | 0.475 (#220) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTSA | ECU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.5% | 41.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 29.2% |
| REB / G | 39.5 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.7% | 46.3% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 31.6% | 33.5% |
| FT Rate | 25.4% | 23.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.3% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.3% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 67.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.7% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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