Betting Lines
| Spread | UNM -17.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | UNM -2500 NMSU +1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNM +44 | 168 | Won |
| Massey | UNM -26.8 (+17.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.8 (+10.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNM -25.0 (+19.0) | 154.9 (+13.1) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNM -21.2 (+22.8) | 155.9 (+12.1) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNM -22.8 (+21.2) | 153.2 (+14.8) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNM -24.5 (+19.5) | 154.3 (+13.7) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 16, 2025 | NMSU 76 – 68 UNM |
| Dec 8, 2024 | NMSU 89 – 83 UNM |
| Dec 16, 2023 | UNM 73 – 72 NMSU |
| Dec 7, 2021 | NMSU 78 – 76 UNM |
| Dec 1, 2021 | UNM 101 – 94 NMSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNM | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-10 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 7-9 |
| Home | 13-3 | 12-3 |
| Away | 5-6 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 8-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.8 | 65.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 75.2 |
| Massey | 11.0 (#33) | -9.9 (#327) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.49 (#71) | -1.94 (#312) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.98 (#74) | -2.85 (#313) |
| RPI | 0.573 (#84) | 0.419 (#289) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNM | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 29.8% |
| REB / G | 43.0 | 32.3 |
| OREB / G | 13.7 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.51 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.5% | 46.9% |
| TOV% | 13.7% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 33.9% | 23.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.1% | 27.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.5% | 55.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 75.5% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.4% | 37.9% |
Game Analysis
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