Betting Lines
| Spread | UNM -20.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | UNM -4000 NMSU +1300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NMSU +6 | 172 | Lost |
| Massey | UNM -18.5 (-24.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.5 (+17.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNM -17.0 (-23.0) | 150.1 (+21.9) | 87% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNM -18.7 (-24.7) | 148.3 (+23.7) | 86% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNM -16.4 (-22.4) | 147.9 (+24.1) | 88% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNM -17.4 (-23.4) | 148.3 (+23.7) | 86% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 16, 2025 | NMSU 76 – 68 UNM |
| Dec 16, 2023 | UNM 73 – 72 NMSU |
| Dec 3, 2023 | UNM 106 – 62 NMSU |
| Dec 7, 2021 | NMSU 78 – 76 UNM |
| Dec 1, 2021 | UNM 101 – 94 NMSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNM | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 10-8 |
| Home | 15-1 | 9-6 |
| Away | 7-4 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.3 | 67.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.6 | 67.3 |
| Massey | 9.7 (#59) | -4.3 (#239) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.00 (#50) | -1.81 (#313) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.23 (#49) | -2.63 (#316) |
| RPI | 0.592 (#53) | 0.395 (#325) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNM | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 38.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 30.1% |
| REB / G | 39.1 | 40.4 |
| OREB / G | 13.1 | 14.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.39 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 43.9% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 33.1% | 36.4% |
| FT Rate | 28.2% | 24.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 47.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.5% | 13.1% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.6% | 39.1% |
Game Analysis
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