Betting Lines
| Spread | NMSU -3.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NMSU +2 | 154 | Lost |
| Massey | UNM -3.3 (-5.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 165.2 (-11.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNM -2.6 (-4.6) | 158.7 (-4.7) | 59% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNM -1.2 (-3.2) | 153.9 (+0.1) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNM -2.7 (-4.7) | 157.5 (-3.5) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNM -2.6 (-4.6) | 159.3 (-5.3) | 59% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 16, 2025 | NMSU 76 – 68 UNM |
| Dec 8, 2024 | NMSU 89 – 83 UNM |
| Dec 16, 2023 | UNM 73 – 72 NMSU |
| Dec 3, 2023 | UNM 106 – 62 NMSU |
| Dec 1, 2021 | UNM 101 – 94 NMSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNM | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 27-7 |
| Conference | 5-12 | 14-4 |
| Home | 11-7 | 13-2 |
| Away | 2-9 | 10-3 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.7 | 64.9 |
| Massey | 1.5 (#148) | 3.2 (#115) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.80 (#114) | 1.47 (#76) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.87 (#121) | 1.86 (#82) |
| RPI | 0.566 (#78) | 0.640 (#26) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNM | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| REB / G | 31.3 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 55.0% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 25.3% | 27.3% |
| FT Rate | 30.6% | 23.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.6% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.8% | 13.0% |
| DRB% | 63.0% | 73.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.4% | 24.5% |
Game Analysis
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