I got a baby's brain and an old man's heart "I'm Eighteen" - Alice Cooper
Atlantic Coast Conference · Petersen Events Center · January 3, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread UNC -4.0 Away covered
O/U 157.5 Under
Money PITT +158 / UNC -190
Model Predictions
Spread Total PITT win
Actual UNC +13 127 Lost
Massey PITT -2.0 (-15.0) — —
Massey Totals — 155.6 (-28.6) —
Bradley-Terry — — 45% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 33% ✓
Baseline Plus ML PITT -1.2 (-14.2) 154.1 (-27.1) 50% ✗
Efficiency Plus ML ★ PITT -2.7 (-15.7) 149.7 (-22.7) 59% ✗
Baseline Tuned ML PITT -1.6 (-14.6) 149.1 (-22.1) 59% ✗
Baseline ML PITT -2.2 (-15.2) 152.1 (-25.1) 54% ✗

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 14, 2026 UNC 79 – 65 PITT
Feb 8, 2025 UNC 67 – 66 PITT
Jan 29, 2025 PITT 73 – 65 UNC
Mar 15, 2024 UNC 72 – 65 PITT
Feb 2, 2023 PITT 65 – 64 UNC

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings PITT UNC
Overall 22-11 29-8
Conference 12-8 17-3
Home 13-5 14-1
Away 7-4 8-2
Neutral 2-2 7-5
Last 5 4-1 3-2
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 75.6 81.9
Avg Pts Against 67.6 70.5
Massey 12.4 (#35) 14.9 (#18)
Bradley-Terry 1.09 (#88) 2.22 (#29)
W. Bradley-Terry 1.60 (#80) 3.35 (#26)
RPI 0.561 (#82) 0.608 (#29)
Shooting & Four Factors PITT UNC
FG% 44.7% 46.7%
3PT% 35.0% 36.7%
REB / G 42.2 38.4
OREB / G 13.3 11.2
AST / TO 1.54 1.41
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 52.5% 53.2%
TOV% 14.4% 13.8%
ORB% 34.7% 31.2%
FT Rate 23.8% 32.8%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 44.8% 48.4%
Opp TOV% 17.1% 17.4%
DRB% 78.6% 73.3%
Opp FT Rate 22.1% 19.6%

Game Analysis

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