Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | UNC -333 PITT +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +7 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | UNC -6.3 (+0.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.4 (-9.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -4.1 (+2.9) | 146.6 (-9.6) | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -3.9 (+3.1) | 143.8 (-6.8) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -5.0 (+2.0) | 145.7 (-8.7) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -4.7 (+2.3) | 147.1 (-10.1) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | UNC 79 – 65 PITT |
| Feb 8, 2025 | UNC 67 – 66 PITT |
| Jan 29, 2025 | PITT 73 – 65 UNC |
| Jan 3, 2024 | UNC 70 – 57 PITT |
| Feb 2, 2023 | PITT 65 – 64 UNC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNC | PITT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-8 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 12-8 |
| Home | 14-1 | 13-5 |
| Away | 8-2 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 7-5 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.9 | 75.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 67.6 |
| Massey | 18.6 (#9) | 12.3 (#38) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.04 (#5) | 1.84 (#48) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.98 (#4) | 2.25 (#49) |
| RPI | 0.626 (#7) | 0.550 (#84) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNC | PITT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 41.2 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.38 | 1.51 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 14.6% | 13.6% |
| ORB% | 33.1% | 31.4% |
| FT Rate | 27.9% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.1% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.1% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 76.1% | 76.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.9% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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