Betting Lines
| Spread | PITT -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | PITT -135 UNC +115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PITT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PITT +8 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | PITT -4.4 (+3.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.1 (-24.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PITT -3.7 (+4.3) | 157.7 (-19.7) | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PITT -4.6 (+3.4) | 156.4 (-18.4) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PITT -3.7 (+4.3) | 155.4 (-17.4) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PITT -4.0 (+4.0) | 153.9 (-15.9) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | UNC 79 – 65 PITT |
| Feb 8, 2025 | UNC 67 – 66 PITT |
| Mar 15, 2024 | UNC 72 – 65 PITT |
| Jan 3, 2024 | UNC 70 – 57 PITT |
| Feb 2, 2023 | PITT 65 – 64 UNC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PITT | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 23-14 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 13-7 |
| Home | 13-4 | 12-3 |
| Away | 3-9 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 5-5 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.9 | 80.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.8 | 74.7 |
| Massey | 14.5 (#31) | 13.4 (#39) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.27 (#41) | 2.16 (#47) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.73 (#44) | 2.92 (#38) |
| RPI | 0.603 (#34) | 0.618 (#25) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PITT | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 37.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.40 | 1.32 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.5% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 14.6% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 29.2% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 26.5% | 27.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.1% | 21.9% |
Game Analysis
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