This will be our year, took a long time to come "This Will Be Our Year" - The Zombies
Atlantic Coast Conference · Dean E. Smith Center · February 2, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread UNC -8.5 Away covered
O/U 146.5 Under
Money UNC -450 / PITT +310
Model Predictions
Spread Total UNC win
Actual PITT +1 129 Lost
Massey UNC -7.7 (-8.7) — —
Massey Totals — 149.9 (-20.9) —
Bradley-Terry — — 76% ✗
Weighted B-T — — 82% ✗
Baseline Plus ML UNC -6.0 (-7.0) 145.9 (-16.9) 74% ✗
Efficiency Plus ML ★ UNC -7.7 (-8.7) 144.9 (-15.9) 77% ✗
Baseline Tuned ML UNC -6.7 (-7.7) 146.0 (-17.0) 75% ✗
Baseline ML UNC -6.2 (-7.2) 145.2 (-16.2) 74% ✗

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 14, 2026 UNC 79 – 65 PITT
Feb 8, 2025 UNC 67 – 66 PITT
Jan 29, 2025 PITT 73 – 65 UNC
Mar 15, 2024 UNC 72 – 65 PITT
Jan 3, 2024 UNC 70 – 57 PITT

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings UNC PITT
Overall 20-13 24-12
Conference 11-9 14-6
Home 12-3 14-3
Away 4-7 7-5
Neutral 4-3 3-4
Last 5 4-1 4-1
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 76.2 75.1
Avg Pts Against 70.9 69.7
Massey 11.3 (#34) 7.2 (#72)
Bradley-Terry 2.20 (#30) 1.68 (#53)
W. Bradley-Terry 2.82 (#23) 2.09 (#53)
RPI 0.614 (#21) 0.570 (#57)
Shooting & Four Factors UNC PITT
FG% 45.4% 44.6%
3PT% 31.8% 35.0%
REB / G 39.1 37.4
OREB / G 10.4 10.3
AST / TO 1.14 1.20
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 51.0% 52.5%
TOV% 15.6% 17.7%
ORB% 29.3% 29.9%
FT Rate 30.8% 22.8%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 49.4% 48.0%
Opp TOV% 16.0% 17.2%
DRB% 76.1% 73.1%
Opp FT Rate 16.5% 19.2%

Game Analysis

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