Betting Lines
| Spread | MSU -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
| Money | MINN +175 MSU -210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MINN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSU +18 | 162 | Lost |
| Massey | MSU -5.6 (-12.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.6 (+35.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 10% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSU -5.3 (-12.7) | 131.3 (+30.7) | 27% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSU -3.7 (-14.3) | 131.3 (+30.7) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSU -4.4 (-13.6) | 132.8 (+29.2) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSU -4.6 (-13.4) | 132.4 (+29.6) | 29% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | MINN 76 – 73 MSU |
| Jan 29, 2025 | MSU 73 – 51 MINN |
| Mar 14, 2024 | MSU 77 – 67 MINN |
| Feb 7, 2024 | MINN 59 – 56 MSU |
| Jan 18, 2024 | MSU 76 – 66 MINN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MINN | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 30-7 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 17-3 |
| Home | 10-9 | 15-1 |
| Away | 5-5 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 7-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.1 | 77.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.7 | 67.1 |
| Massey | 0.5 (#150) | 11.2 (#47) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.46 (#129) | 2.71 (#29) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.85 (#120) | 4.13 (#26) |
| RPI | 0.488 (#187) | 0.618 (#35) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MINN | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 47.2% |
| 3PT% | 29.3% | 22.4% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 40.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.50 | 1.46 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.2% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 29.9% | 34.5% |
| FT Rate | 21.3% | 30.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.9% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 76.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.8% | 21.9% |
Game Analysis
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