Betting Lines
| Spread | MSU -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | MSU -1600 MINN +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSU +22 | 124 | Won |
| Massey | MSU -15.7 (+6.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.6 (-15.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSU -14.6 (+7.4) | 143.1 (-19.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSU -13.3 (+8.7) | 142.4 (-18.4) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSU -13.9 (+8.1) | 143.6 (-19.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSU -13.7 (+8.3) | 143.5 (-19.5) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | MINN 76 – 73 MSU |
| Dec 5, 2024 | MSU 90 – 72 MINN |
| Mar 14, 2024 | MSU 77 – 67 MINN |
| Feb 7, 2024 | MINN 59 – 56 MSU |
| Jan 18, 2024 | MSU 76 – 66 MINN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSU | MINN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-7 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 7-13 |
| Home | 15-1 | 10-9 |
| Away | 8-2 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 7-4 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.7 | 68.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.1 | 69.7 |
| Massey | 17.6 (#17) | 5.2 (#97) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.60 (#7) | 1.33 (#76) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.49 (#8) | 2.02 (#67) |
| RPI | 0.636 (#18) | 0.545 (#97) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSU | MINN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.5% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 28.7% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 40.9 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.51 | 1.54 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 36.7% | 30.0% |
| FT Rate | 32.2% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.6% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 73.8% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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