Betting Lines
| Spread | MSU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | MINN +138 MSU -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MINN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MINN +3 | 115 | Won |
| Massey | MSU -4.5 (+7.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.9 (-21.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSU -3.1 (+6.1) | 137.4 (-22.4) | 41% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSU -2.5 (+5.5) | 136.2 (-21.2) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSU -2.6 (+5.6) | 136.3 (-21.3) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MSU -2.6 (+5.6) | 136.6 (-21.6) | 38% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | MINN 76 – 73 MSU |
| Jan 29, 2025 | MSU 73 – 51 MINN |
| Dec 5, 2024 | MSU 90 – 72 MINN |
| Mar 14, 2024 | MSU 77 – 67 MINN |
| Jan 18, 2024 | MSU 76 – 66 MINN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MINN | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 20-15 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 10-10 |
| Home | 16-4 | 14-4 |
| Away | 3-9 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.0 | 72.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 66.1 |
| Massey | 7.6 (#75) | 15.5 (#18) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.98 (#104) | 1.81 (#49) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.46 (#92) | 2.49 (#35) |
| RPI | 0.515 (#145) | 0.579 (#55) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MINN | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.7% | 47.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 37.1 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.49 | 1.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.4% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 14.9% |
| ORB% | 32.2% | 30.2% |
| FT Rate | 23.8% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.3% | 46.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.2% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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