Betting Lines
| Spread | MSU -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | MSU -1000 MINN +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSU +10 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | MSU -13.3 (-3.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.5 (+3.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSU -12.1 (-2.1) | 142.9 (-0.9) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSU -13.5 (-3.5) | 142.4 (-0.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSU -10.7 (-0.7) | 140.8 (+1.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSU -11.2 (-1.2) | 142.8 (-0.8) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | MINN 76 – 73 MSU |
| Jan 29, 2025 | MSU 73 – 51 MINN |
| Dec 5, 2024 | MSU 90 – 72 MINN |
| Mar 14, 2024 | MSU 77 – 67 MINN |
| Feb 7, 2024 | MINN 59 – 56 MSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSU | MINN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-15 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 9-11 |
| Home | 14-4 | 16-4 |
| Away | 3-7 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.9 | 75.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.1 | 71.9 |
| Massey | 15.6 (#15) | 6.2 (#90) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.44 (#71) | 0.82 (#106) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.28 (#53) | 1.13 (#107) |
| RPI | 0.561 (#86) | 0.509 (#158) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSU | MINN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.8% | 48.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.3% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 37.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.68 | 1.55 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.8% | 55.0% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 33.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.4% | 47.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.1% | 20.1% |
Game Analysis
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