Betting Lines
| Spread | MSST -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | MSST -115 ALA -111 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALA +8 | 156 | Lost |
| Massey | ALA -4.3 (-3.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.7 (-0.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -0.3 (-7.7) | 152.5 (+3.5) | 38% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALA -0.8 (-7.2) | 154.4 (+1.6) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALA -0.8 (-7.2) | 150.5 (+5.5) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -0.4 (-7.6) | 152.1 (+3.9) | 38% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | ALA 100 – 75 MSST |
| Jan 14, 2026 | ALA 97 – 82 MSST |
| Feb 26, 2025 | ALA 111 – 73 MSST |
| Jan 30, 2025 | ALA 88 – 84 MSST |
| Feb 4, 2024 | ALA 99 – 67 MSST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSST | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 25-12 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 13-5 |
| Home | 11-4 | 14-2 |
| Away | 2-8 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 8-2 | 6-5 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 90.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.1 | 81.2 |
| Massey | 12.5 (#32) | 20.8 (#5) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.49 (#21) | 1.93 (#43) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.59 (#10) | 2.62 (#35) |
| RPI | 0.621 (#21) | 0.614 (#26) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSST | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 49.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 39.5% |
| REB / G | 38.9 | 40.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 1.37 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 58.7% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 33.8% | 35.3% |
| FT Rate | 28.0% | 29.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.5% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 73.8% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 24.9% |
Game Analysis
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