Betting Lines
| Spread | MSST -0.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 165.5 Over |
| Money | MSST -115 ALA -105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALA +4 | 172 | Lost |
| Massey | ALA -1.3 (-2.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 170.6 (+1.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -0.7 (-3.3) | 167.9 (+4.1) | 41% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSST -1.0 (-5.0) | 170.3 (+1.7) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALA -0.4 (-3.6) | 170.0 (+2.0) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -0.9 (-3.1) | 172.6 (-0.6) | 42% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | ALA 100 – 75 MSST |
| Jan 14, 2026 | ALA 97 – 82 MSST |
| Feb 26, 2025 | ALA 111 – 73 MSST |
| Feb 4, 2024 | ALA 99 – 67 MSST |
| Jan 14, 2024 | ALA 82 – 74 MSST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSST | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 28-9 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 13-5 |
| Home | 10-5 | 12-3 |
| Away | 6-5 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 7-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.5 | 90.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 81.3 |
| Massey | 16.6 (#23) | 21.2 (#8) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.51 (#9) | 4.07 (#3) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.35 (#13) | 5.12 (#4) |
| RPI | 0.635 (#18) | 0.701 (#2) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSST | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 47.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 38.8 | 44.6 |
| OREB / G | 13.4 | 14.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.51 | 1.32 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 55.0% |
| TOV% | 14.9% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 35.8% | 36.6% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 30.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 45.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 14.0% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 22.7% |
Game Analysis
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