Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 174.5 Over |
| Money | ALA -550 MSST +380 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALA +38 | 184 | Won |
| Massey | ALA -9.0 (+29.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 171.7 (+12.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -8.8 (+29.2) | 168.2 (+15.8) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALA -9.1 (+28.9) | 170.1 (+13.9) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALA -9.7 (+28.3) | 171.0 (+13.0) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -9.5 (+28.5) | 171.1 (+12.9) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | ALA 100 – 75 MSST |
| Jan 14, 2026 | ALA 97 – 82 MSST |
| Jan 30, 2025 | ALA 88 – 84 MSST |
| Feb 4, 2024 | ALA 99 – 67 MSST |
| Jan 14, 2024 | ALA 82 – 74 MSST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALA | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-9 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 8-10 |
| Home | 12-3 | 10-5 |
| Away | 9-3 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 7-3 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 90.7 | 79.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.3 | 74.2 |
| Massey | 21.6 (#6) | 15.7 (#30) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.01 (#4) | 3.16 (#10) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.86 (#6) | 3.82 (#14) |
| RPI | 0.679 (#2) | 0.620 (#17) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALA | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.4% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 43.8 | 38.4 |
| OREB / G | 13.4 | 13.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 1.44 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.4% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 36.2% | 34.8% |
| FT Rate | 30.0% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.2% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.3% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 24.2% |
Game Analysis
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