Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Over |
| Money | ALA -450 MSST +310 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALA +32 | 166 | Won |
| Massey | ALA -11.8 (+20.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.6 (+8.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -11.0 (+21.0) | 156.6 (+9.4) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALA -9.7 (+22.3) | 156.9 (+9.1) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALA -10.1 (+21.9) | 157.4 (+8.6) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -10.9 (+21.1) | 156.9 (+9.1) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | ALA 100 – 75 MSST |
| Jan 14, 2026 | ALA 97 – 82 MSST |
| Feb 26, 2025 | ALA 111 – 73 MSST |
| Jan 30, 2025 | ALA 88 – 84 MSST |
| Jan 14, 2024 | ALA 82 – 74 MSST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALA | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-12 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 8-10 |
| Home | 14-2 | 11-4 |
| Away | 5-5 | 2-8 |
| Neutral | 6-5 | 8-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 90.1 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.2 | 69.1 |
| Massey | 20.1 (#5) | 11.8 (#39) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.47 (#18) | 1.92 (#42) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.16 (#14) | 2.66 (#29) |
| RPI | 0.631 (#14) | 0.595 (#34) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALA | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.8% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 38.8% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 39.1 | 39.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.0% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 34.5% | 35.3% |
| FT Rate | 29.8% | 24.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 46.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 73.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.8% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
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