I'm not a coward; I've just never been tested. "The Impression That I Get" - The Mighty Mighty Bosstones
Conference USA · Liberty Arena (VA) · February 11, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread LIB -2.5 Home covered
O/U 134.5 Under
Money LIB -138 / LT +140
Model Predictions
Spread Total LIB win
Actual LIB +3 127 Won
Massey LT -0.1 (+3.1) — —
Massey Totals — 135.6 (-8.6) —
Bradley-Terry — — 55% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 50% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ LIB -1.1 (+1.9) 135.3 (-8.3) 54% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML LIB -0.4 (+2.6) 137.9 (-10.9) 52% ✓
Baseline ML LIB -0.5 (+2.5) 138.5 (-11.5) 49% ✗
Baseline Plus ML LIB -0.6 (+2.4) 137.6 (-10.6) 55% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Mar 6, 2026 LT 76 – 71 LIB
Jan 9, 2026 LIB 72 – 56 LT
Feb 7, 2025 LIB 77 – 53 LT
Jan 12, 2025 LT 79 – 74 LIB
Jan 14, 2024 LT 80 – 76 LIB

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings LIB LT
Overall 18-14 22-10
Conference 7-9 12-4
Home 12-3 14-2
Away 2-8 8-7
Neutral 4-3 0-1
Last 5 3-2 4-1
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 71.4 72.1
Avg Pts Against 68.3 65.6
Massey 4.5 (#107) 8.0 (#73)
Bradley-Terry 0.53 (#129) 0.94 (#103)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.80 (#122) 1.49 (#90)
RPI 0.524 (#129) 0.568 (#73)
Shooting & Four Factors LIB LT
FG% 45.6% 44.0%
3PT% 34.9% 35.5%
REB / G 33.2 39.1
OREB / G 8.8 11.8
AST / TO 1.58 0.94
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 53.7% 50.6%
TOV% 14.7% 18.8%
ORB% 25.3% 33.8%
FT Rate 17.1% 30.3%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 50.0% 44.7%
Opp TOV% 17.1% 17.4%
DRB% 74.3% 71.7%
Opp FT Rate 23.0% 22.7%

Game Analysis

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