Betting Lines
| Spread | CCSU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | LEM +138 CCSU -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LEM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LEM +5 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | LEM -0.0 (+5.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.4 (-10.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 38% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LEM -0.2 (+4.8) | 141.8 (-8.8) | 52% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LEM -1.4 (+3.6) | 139.9 (-6.9) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LEM -0.0 (+5.0) | 139.2 (-6.2) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CCSU -0.1 (+5.1) | 141.3 (-8.3) | 54% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | CCSU 78 – 77 LEM |
| Jan 10, 2026 | CCSU 69 – 59 LEM |
| Mar 6, 2025 | CCSU 86 – 67 LEM |
| Feb 28, 2025 | CCSU 84 – 75 LEM |
| Jan 25, 2025 | CCSU 93 – 70 LEM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LEM | CCSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 20-11 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 13-3 |
| Home | 10-3 | 11-4 |
| Away | 5-14 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.0 | 70.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 68.3 |
| Massey | -7.1 (#287) | -3.8 (#236) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.60 (#313) | -0.48 (#218) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.00 (#315) | -0.73 (#232) |
| RPI | 0.419 (#318) | 0.482 (#204) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LEM | CCSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 31.7 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 24.4% | 27.4% |
| FT Rate | 18.2% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.2% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.8% | 17.7% |
Game Analysis
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