Betting Lines
| Spread | CCSU -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | CCSU -1400 LEM +750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CCSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CCSU +19 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | CCSU -16.4 (+2.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.3 (+7.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CCSU -15.0 (+4.0) | 142.2 (+10.8) | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CCSU -13.4 (+5.6) | 143.8 (+9.2) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CCSU -14.9 (+4.1) | 143.4 (+9.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CCSU -15.0 (+4.0) | 143.0 (+10.0) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | CCSU 78 – 77 LEM |
| Jan 10, 2026 | CCSU 69 – 59 LEM |
| Feb 28, 2025 | CCSU 84 – 75 LEM |
| Jan 25, 2025 | CCSU 93 – 70 LEM |
| Feb 16, 2024 | LEM 69 – 64 CCSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CCSU | LEM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-7 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 14-2 | 4-12 |
| Home | 13-3 | 6-7 |
| Away | 12-3 | 2-16 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.1 | 81.4 |
| Massey | -0.8 (#172) | -14.0 (#351) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.39 (#137) | -2.29 (#341) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.22 (#154) | -3.02 (#349) |
| RPI | 0.538 (#104) | 0.405 (#339) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CCSU | LEM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.8% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 31.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 26.7% | 25.5% |
| FT Rate | 19.4% | 27.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 54.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 74.9% | 67.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 12.6% | 27.1% |
Game Analysis
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