Betting Lines
| Spread | TNST -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
| Money | TNST -120 WIU +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TNST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WIU +7 | 129 | Lost |
| Massey | TNST -2.2 (-9.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.9 (-1.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TNST -0.3 (-7.3) | 130.6 (-1.6) | 51% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WIU -0.5 (-6.5) | 130.4 (-1.4) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TNST -0.4 (-7.4) | 130.2 (-1.2) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TNST -0.4 (-7.4) | 131.3 (-2.3) | 52% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | TNST 83 – 56 WIU |
| Jan 9, 2026 | TNST 90 – 68 WIU |
| Feb 7, 2025 | TNST 87 – 69 WIU |
| Jan 11, 2025 | TNST 72 – 52 WIU |
| Mar 8, 2024 | WIU 61 – 59 TNST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TNST | WIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 13-5 |
| Home | 11-3 | 10-5 |
| Away | 5-10 | 10-6 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 66.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.2 | 67.4 |
| Massey | -5.8 (#275) | -4.7 (#255) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.68 (#244) | -0.44 (#213) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.95 (#251) | -0.31 (#200) |
| RPI | 0.479 (#215) | 0.491 (#190) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TNST | WIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 39.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 13.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 47.4% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 20.8% |
| ORB% | 28.1% | 37.5% |
| FT Rate | 27.2% | 20.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 47.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 14.3% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.6% | 18.8% |
Game Analysis
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