Betting Lines
| Spread | TNST -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | TNST -425 WIU +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TNST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TNST +18 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | TNST -10.1 (+7.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.3 (+7.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TNST -8.5 (+9.5) | 143.5 (+12.5) | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TNST -7.7 (+10.3) | 144.3 (+11.7) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TNST -8.6 (+9.4) | 143.5 (+12.5) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TNST -9.0 (+9.0) | 144.3 (+11.7) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | TNST 83 – 56 WIU |
| Jan 9, 2026 | TNST 90 – 68 WIU |
| Jan 11, 2025 | TNST 72 – 52 WIU |
| Mar 8, 2024 | WIU 61 – 59 TNST |
| Feb 17, 2024 | WIU 68 – 61 TNST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TNST | WIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 12-19 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 6-14 |
| Home | 12-3 | 8-7 |
| Away | 4-10 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | W2 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.1 | 66.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.4 | 73.3 |
| Massey | -6.6 (#271) | -13.6 (#351) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.53 (#307) | -2.47 (#344) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.97 (#307) | -3.58 (#354) |
| RPI | 0.425 (#313) | 0.377 (#350) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TNST | WIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.3% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 38.6 | 32.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.79 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 47.9% |
| TOV% | 21.5% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 33.5% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 26.1% | 17.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 14.4% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.8% | 22.7% |
Game Analysis
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