Betting Lines
| Spread | TNST -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | WIU +230 TNST -285 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TNST +22 | 158 | Lost |
| Massey | TNST -7.3 (-14.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.4 (+11.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 9% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TNST -7.9 (-14.1) | 141.4 (+16.6) | 22% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TNST -7.9 (-14.1) | 140.5 (+17.5) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TNST -7.4 (-14.6) | 139.8 (+18.2) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TNST -7.4 (-14.6) | 140.9 (+17.1) | 24% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | TNST 83 – 56 WIU |
| Feb 7, 2025 | TNST 87 – 69 WIU |
| Jan 11, 2025 | TNST 72 – 52 WIU |
| Mar 8, 2024 | WIU 61 – 59 TNST |
| Feb 17, 2024 | WIU 68 – 61 TNST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WIU | TNST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-26 | 23-10 |
| Conference | 1-19 | 15-5 |
| Home | 4-11 | 10-2 |
| Away | 1-15 | 10-7 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.2 | 77.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.5 | 75.1 |
| Massey | -14.7 (#347) | -3.6 (#223) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.71 (#344) | 0.27 (#151) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.78 (#348) | -0.28 (#184) |
| RPI | 0.379 (#347) | 0.516 (#139) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WIU | TNST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.3% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 29.5% | 30.7% |
| REB / G | 31.9 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 13.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.59 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.9% | 46.3% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 29.9% | 33.7% |
| FT Rate | 25.3% | 23.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.8% | 53.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 21.1% |
| DRB% | 66.0% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.9% | 36.1% |
Game Analysis
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