Betting Lines
| Spread | SEA -17.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | SEA -2500 RGV +1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SEA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SEA +28 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | SEA -17.7 (+10.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.1 (-9.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SEA -14.8 (+13.2) | 145.2 (-5.2) | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SEA -14.6 (+13.4) | 146.6 (-6.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SEA -16.4 (+11.6) | 147.1 (-7.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SEA -15.3 (+12.7) | 144.5 (-4.5) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 12, 2024 | RGV 81 – 80 SEA |
| Jan 6, 2023 | SEA 66 – 64 RGV |
| Feb 17, 2022 | SEA 102 – 62 RGV |
| Feb 11, 2022 | SEA 67 – 59 RGV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SEA | RGV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-14 | 6-25 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 2-18 |
| Home | 14-4 | 5-9 |
| Away | 4-9 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | W4 | L14 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.0 | 68.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.4 | 80.7 |
| Massey | 3.9 (#114) | -10.5 (#326) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.45 (#136) | -1.97 (#331) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.89 (#117) | -2.70 (#338) |
| RPI | 0.526 (#129) | 0.396 (#341) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SEA | RGV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 28.9% |
| REB / G | 37.1 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 45.8% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 25.7% |
| FT Rate | 26.5% | 31.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.0% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 74.1% | 65.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.6% | 26.7% |
Game Analysis
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