Betting Lines
| Spread | MSST -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | LSU +145 MSST -188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSST +20 | 154 | Lost |
| Massey | MSST -1.0 (-19.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.6 (+9.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 44% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSST -1.1 (-18.9) | 147.2 (+6.8) | 45% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSST -2.0 (-18.0) | 145.3 (+8.7) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSST -0.8 (-19.2) | 145.1 (+8.9) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MSST -0.2 (-19.8) | 146.2 (+7.8) | 45% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 29, 2026 | MSST 80 – 66 LSU |
| Mar 12, 2025 | MSST 91 – 62 LSU |
| Mar 1, 2025 | MSST 81 – 69 LSU |
| Mar 14, 2024 | MSST 70 – 60 LSU |
| Feb 9, 2023 | MSST 64 – 53 LSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LSU | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 8-10 |
| Home | 12-6 | 11-4 |
| Away | 3-7 | 2-8 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 8-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.4 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.0 | 69.1 |
| Massey | 7.4 (#78) | 11.7 (#42) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.26 (#82) | 2.11 (#30) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.56 (#82) | 2.77 (#25) |
| RPI | 0.541 (#106) | 0.596 (#30) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LSU | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 39.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 35.2% |
| FT Rate | 27.3% | 25.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 46.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.1% | 23.7% |
Game Analysis
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