Betting Lines
| Spread | MSST -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | MSST -1000 LSU +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSST +12 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | MSST -8.7 (+3.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.6 (-0.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSST -9.5 (+2.5) | 152.3 (-2.3) | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSST -9.8 (+2.2) | 152.2 (-2.2) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSST -9.2 (+2.8) | 150.5 (-0.5) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSST -8.1 (+3.9) | 151.9 (-1.9) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 29, 2026 | MSST 80 – 66 LSU |
| Mar 12, 2025 | MSST 91 – 62 LSU |
| Mar 14, 2024 | MSST 70 – 60 LSU |
| Feb 25, 2024 | MSST 87 – 67 LSU |
| Feb 9, 2023 | MSST 64 – 53 LSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSST | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 3-15 |
| Home | 10-5 | 11-7 |
| Away | 6-5 | 2-8 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.5 | 73.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 73.6 |
| Massey | 14.7 (#31) | 9.2 (#62) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.14 (#11) | 1.55 (#64) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.76 (#16) | 1.88 (#66) |
| RPI | 0.614 (#20) | 0.518 (#149) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSST | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.42 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 34.9% | 30.6% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 23.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 46.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 65.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.0% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
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