Betting Lines
| Spread | MSST -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 124.5 Under |
| Money | MSST -500 LSU +333 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSST +11 | 117 | Won |
| Massey | MSST -11.3 (-0.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 120.1 (-3.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSST -8.9 (+2.1) | 128.1 (-11.1) | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSST -9.0 (+2.0) | 126.2 (-9.2) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSST -9.2 (+1.8) | 128.4 (-11.4) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSST -10.2 (+0.8) | 126.5 (-9.5) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 29, 2026 | MSST 80 – 66 LSU |
| Mar 12, 2025 | MSST 91 – 62 LSU |
| Mar 1, 2025 | MSST 81 – 69 LSU |
| Mar 14, 2024 | MSST 70 – 60 LSU |
| Feb 25, 2024 | MSST 87 – 67 LSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSST | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 2-16 |
| Home | 12-4 | 10-8 |
| Away | 4-6 | 0-9 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.7 | 67.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.0 | 70.7 |
| Massey | 9.8 (#47) | 2.1 (#130) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.66 (#54) | 0.83 (#101) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.07 (#57) | 0.81 (#113) |
| RPI | 0.555 (#80) | 0.515 (#150) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSST | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.6% | 41.3% |
| 3PT% | 27.6% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 13.1 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.6% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 35.4% | 30.8% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.2% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.5% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.9% | 19.3% |
Game Analysis
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