Betting Lines
| Spread | NCCU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Over |
| Money | NCAT +105 NCCU -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCAT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCAT +13 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | NCAT -1.3 (+11.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.2 (-1.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 26% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 22% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCAT -1.5 (+11.5) | 149.0 (+8.0) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCAT -0.5 (+12.5) | 150.5 (+6.5) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NCAT -0.3 (+12.7) | 150.0 (+7.0) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCAT -0.4 (+12.6) | 151.2 (+5.8) | 54% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 6, 2025 | NCAT 69 – 54 NCCU |
| Dec 13, 2023 | NCCU 67 – 62 NCAT |
| Feb 28, 2021 | NCAT 55 – 53 NCCU |
| Feb 24, 2021 | NCAT 79 – 63 NCCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCAT | NCCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-25 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 6-8 |
| Home | 5-9 | 10-4 |
| Away | 2-15 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.9 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.9 | 78.8 |
| Massey | -9.8 (#325) | -6.8 (#282) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.73 (#343) | -0.93 (#258) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.72 (#343) | -1.59 (#277) |
| RPI | 0.405 (#326) | 0.471 (#225) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCAT | NCCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.9% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.4% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 28.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.2% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 14.2% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 24.3% | 31.7% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 25.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 57.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 22.9% |
| DRB% | 67.7% | 59.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 33.6% |
Game Analysis
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