Betting Lines
| Spread | NCAT -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | NCCU +114 NCAT -135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCAT +15 | 123 | Lost |
| Massey | NCAT -2.3 (-12.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.6 (-21.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 29% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCAT -1.6 (-13.4) | 137.1 (-14.1) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCAT -0.9 (-14.1) | 141.0 (-18.0) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NCAT -0.4 (-14.6) | 140.6 (-17.6) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCAT -1.0 (-14.0) | 138.4 (-15.4) | 38% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 28, 2024 | NCAT 85 – 72 NCCU |
| Dec 13, 2023 | NCCU 67 – 62 NCAT |
| Feb 28, 2021 | NCAT 55 – 53 NCCU |
| Feb 24, 2021 | NCAT 79 – 63 NCCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCCU | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 11-19 |
| Conference | 8-6 | 4-14 |
| Home | 8-5 | 6-6 |
| Away | 4-12 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.6 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.3 | 78.5 |
| Massey | -12.4 (#334) | -5.1 (#248) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.24 (#321) | -1.13 (#268) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.99 (#335) | -1.87 (#282) |
| RPI | 0.421 (#299) | 0.420 (#300) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCCU | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 33.8% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 31.9 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 39.2% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 28.2% | 26.5% |
| FT Rate | 29.6% | 36.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.2% | 55.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.3% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 60.7% | 73.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.6% | 26.0% |
Game Analysis
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