Betting Lines
| Spread | NCCU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | NCCU -138 NCAT +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCAT +16 | 142 | Lost |
| Massey | NCCU -5.9 (-21.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.1 (-5.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCCU -3.2 (-19.2) | 142.0 (-0.0) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCCU -3.2 (-19.2) | 140.7 (+1.3) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NCCU -2.9 (-18.9) | 143.4 (-1.4) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCCU -2.6 (-18.6) | 142.7 (-0.7) | 57% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 6, 2025 | NCAT 69 – 54 NCCU |
| Dec 28, 2024 | NCAT 85 – 72 NCCU |
| Dec 13, 2023 | NCCU 67 – 62 NCAT |
| Feb 28, 2021 | NCAT 55 – 53 NCCU |
Game Analysis
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