Betting Lines
| Spread | NCAT -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | NCAT -125 NCCU +138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCAT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCAT +2 | 108 | Won |
| Massey | NCAT -1.9 (+0.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.3 (-38.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCAT -3.3 (-1.3) | 134.8 (-26.8) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCAT -4.3 (-2.3) | 140.6 (-32.6) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NCAT -4.3 (-2.3) | 140.4 (-32.4) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCAT -3.6 (-1.6) | 141.0 (-33.0) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 6, 2025 | NCAT 69 – 54 NCCU |
| Dec 28, 2024 | NCAT 85 – 72 NCCU |
| Dec 13, 2023 | NCCU 67 – 62 NCAT |
| Feb 24, 2021 | NCAT 79 – 63 NCCU |
Game Analysis
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