Betting Lines
| Spread | MCN -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | SFA +136 MCN -162 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MCN +17 | 135 | Lost |
| Massey | MCN -2.7 (-14.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.7 (-4.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MCN -2.1 (-14.9) | 134.5 (+0.5) | 40% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MCN -3.5 (-13.5) | 134.3 (+0.7) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MCN -1.8 (-15.2) | 136.1 (-1.1) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MCN -2.1 (-14.9) | 135.6 (-0.6) | 43% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 3, 2026 | SFA 67 – 60 MCN |
| Jan 6, 2026 | MCN 66 – 64 SFA |
| Mar 4, 2025 | MCN 95 – 64 SFA |
| Jan 20, 2025 | MCN 79 – 59 SFA |
| Dec 5, 2020 | SFA 86 – 76 MCN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFA | MCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-6 | 28-6 |
| Conference | 20-2 | 19-3 |
| Home | 15-1 | 14-0 |
| Away | 12-4 | 9-5 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 76.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.7 | 67.4 |
| Massey | 5.9 (#97) | 8.6 (#70) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.46 (#69) | 1.63 (#65) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.88 (#70) | 1.93 (#67) |
| RPI | 0.551 (#77) | 0.599 (#29) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFA | MCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.3% | 31.1% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.43 | 1.37 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 14.0% | 14.2% |
| ORB% | 34.3% | 35.0% |
| FT Rate | 20.6% | 29.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 24.6% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 64.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 30.7% |
Game Analysis
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