Betting Lines
| Spread | MCN -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | SFA +700 MCN -1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MCN +31 | 159 | Lost |
| Massey | MCN -11.4 (-19.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.8 (+28.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 13% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 11% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MCN -11.2 (-19.8) | 136.6 (+22.4) | 17% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MCN -11.8 (-19.2) | 135.6 (+23.4) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MCN -11.3 (-19.7) | 136.0 (+23.0) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MCN -10.6 (-20.4) | 138.0 (+21.0) | 16% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2026 | MCN 76 – 59 SFA |
| Feb 3, 2026 | SFA 67 – 60 MCN |
| Jan 6, 2026 | MCN 66 – 64 SFA |
| Jan 20, 2025 | MCN 79 – 59 SFA |
| Dec 5, 2020 | SFA 86 – 76 MCN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFA | MCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-17 | 28-7 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 19-1 |
| Home | 8-8 | 15-1 |
| Away | 6-9 | 10-2 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.7 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 64.5 |
| Massey | -5.9 (#263) | 8.7 (#66) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.08 (#270) | 1.40 (#69) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.27 (#267) | 1.53 (#79) |
| RPI | 0.468 (#247) | 0.588 (#38) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFA | MCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 28.8% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.0% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 22.6% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 35.1% | 36.0% |
| FT Rate | 20.7% | 24.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.6% | 22.1% |
| DRB% | 66.7% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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