Betting Lines
| Spread | MCN -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | SFA +120 MCN -142 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFA +7 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | SFA -0.6 (+6.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.0 (-16.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFA -1.2 (+5.8) | 138.3 (-11.3) | 50% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFA -0.1 (+6.9) | 137.8 (-10.8) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFA -2.2 (+4.8) | 139.1 (-12.1) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SFA -1.6 (+5.4) | 139.7 (-12.7) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2026 | MCN 76 – 59 SFA |
| Jan 6, 2026 | MCN 66 – 64 SFA |
| Mar 4, 2025 | MCN 95 – 64 SFA |
| Jan 20, 2025 | MCN 79 – 59 SFA |
| Dec 5, 2020 | SFA 86 – 76 MCN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFA | MCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-6 | 28-6 |
| Conference | 20-2 | 19-3 |
| Home | 15-1 | 14-0 |
| Away | 12-4 | 9-5 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 76.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.7 | 67.4 |
| Massey | 6.6 (#90) | 9.0 (#69) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.30 (#75) | 1.57 (#65) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.68 (#76) | 1.91 (#68) |
| RPI | 0.544 (#88) | 0.589 (#46) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFA | MCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 37.7 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.39 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 14.6% | 14.8% |
| ORB% | 34.6% | 37.1% |
| FT Rate | 19.3% | 30.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.7% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 24.3% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 63.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.9% | 30.9% |
Game Analysis
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