Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | TTU -105 HOU -115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TTU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TTU +4 | 176 | Won |
| Massey | TTU -0.8 (+3.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.0 (+35.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TTU -0.9 (+3.1) | 137.9 (+38.1) | 50% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TTU -1.3 (+2.7) | 136.5 (+39.5) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TTU -2.5 (+1.5) | 136.7 (+39.3) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TTU -2.6 (+1.4) | 137.2 (+38.8) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 7, 2026 | HOU 69 – 65 TTU |
| Feb 25, 2025 | HOU 69 – 61 TTU |
| Feb 1, 2025 | TTU 82 – 81 HOU |
| Mar 15, 2024 | HOU 82 – 59 TTU |
| Jan 18, 2024 | HOU 77 – 54 TTU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TTU | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 30-7 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 14-4 |
| Home | 14-2 | 15-1 |
| Away | 5-5 | 6-3 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 9-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.3 | 76.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.1 | 62.3 |
| Massey | 18.7 (#22) | 21.1 (#9) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.68 (#14) | 4.02 (#9) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.57 (#16) | 5.37 (#8) |
| RPI | 0.672 (#7) | 0.648 (#12) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TTU | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.3% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 39.1% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 37.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 14.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.56 | 1.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.3% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 14.9% | 13.2% |
| ORB% | 33.8% | 38.6% |
| FT Rate | 20.1% | 19.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 45.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 23.7% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.9% | 25.7% |
Game Analysis
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